On April 12, the Bank of Canada (BoC) made an announcement that it would maintain the interest rates at 4.5%. This rate has been unchanged since January 2023, following several increases in the latter half of 2022. The stability of interest rates and the decreasing rate of inflation suggest that the Canadian economy may be beginning to stabilize. This stability allows newcomers to Canada to plan their budgets for large purchases and get a consistent rate of return on any guaranteed investment certificates (GICs).
However, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem says that the current monetary policy needs to remain restrictive to lower the inflation rate, and it is still possible that interest rates could rise higher. It is still too early to tell. Macklem pointed out in a news conference that the benefits of the higher interest rate will not be immediately apparent, as they usually come with a delay of between 18 and 24 months after measures are implemented. This is a factor in why prices are still so high for Canadians.
The interest rate has a significant impact on the average Canadian’s ability to make substantial purchases, such as a home or a car. Although the Canadian government recently amended an act that prevented non-Canadians and permanent residents from purchasing a home in Canada, the high interest rate means that mortgage rates will remain elevated for some time. This may be a cause for concern even for those with a locked-in mortgage rate that is up for renegotiation. However, a stable interest rate means that monthly mortgage payments will remain constant and enable newcomers and Canadians to budget and plan for the future.
Macklem told reporters that the labour market has remained tight, with unemployment at 5%, but businesses are starting to find it easier to find labour due to strong population growth. Macklem credits much of the growth to employers who use the Temporary Foreign Worker Program, which helps bring in additional skilled workers and reduces the number of job vacancies. Canada’s population is aging, and the economy relies on immigration to fill gaps in the labour force, keep essential services running, and benefit from their income tax contributions.
Last November, Canada released the Immigration Levels Plan 2023-2025, which contains the highest-ever targets for new permanent resident admissions at 500,000 per year by 2025. This will help ease the pressure to find skilled employees in high-demand sectors such as healthcare, construction, and professional and scientific services. Speaking about the benefits of immigration for reducing inflation, Macklem stated that increased immigration would rebalance supply and demand. Bank of Canada predicts that inflation will fall to around 3% in the middle of this year and decrease more gradually to the 2% target by the end of 2024.
The current high interest rates can be traced back to measures taken during the COVID-19 pandemic. At the time, the BoC slashed interest rates to reduce the financial burden on Canadians facing hardships while many workplaces were closed. As the economy rebounded and spending increased, more demand for products and services led businesses to raise prices, contributing to the high rate of inflation. Raising interest rates curbs spending and eases demand, allowing businesses to lower their prices, and the cost of living should come down. Inflation peaked in June 2022 at 8.1% and has since lowered to 5.2% as of February.