Is Metro Vancouver Headed for a Condo Crisis? What Buyers, Sellers, and Investors Need to Know

Oleg First time buyers, For Buyers, For Sellers, Market update, Statistics, Videos

A new report by Rennie is raising alarm bells for Metro Vancouver’s condo market: we could see a 60% spike in unsold inventory by the end of 2025.

Yes, you read that right—thousands of brand-new condo units may sit empty by the end of this year. So what’s really going on? And more importantly, what does it mean for you?

Hi, I’m Oleg, a local real estate agent with over 10 years of experience in Vancouver. Let’s break down the data, explore why this is happening, and talk about what it means whether you’re a buyer, seller, or investor.

📊 Where Is This Number Coming From?

Rennie just released their Spring Market Outlook for 2025, and here’s what it shows:

  • 2,100 completed but unsold new condo units are currently on the market.

  • Based on current absorption rates, that number is expected to rise to 3,500 by year-end—a 60% increase in just a few months.

🔍 What’s Causing the Spike in Inventory?

There’s a combination of obvious and not-so-obvious reasons behind the looming oversupply:

1. High Interest Rates

Borrowing costs surged over the past couple of years. While rates are trending downward and the Bank of Canada is holding steady, confidence remains low among both homebuyers and investors.

2. Falling Investor Confidence

Investor participation in pre-sale condos has dropped sharply:

  • Down from around 50% in 2021–2023

  • Now hovering around 26% in 2024

  • Expected to fall further in 2025

3. Government Policy Changes

Recent policy shifts have shaken the market, including:

  • The effective ban on short-term rentals

  • Proposed capital gains tax increases (even if partially walked back) These have discouraged both local and international investors.

4. International Trade Tensions

The ongoing tariff issues with the U.S. are impacting both construction costs and consumer confidence, affecting both the pre-sale and resale housing markets.

🤔 Less Obvious Factors Behind the Inventory Surge

5. A Wave of New Completions

We saw record housing starts in 2022 and 2023. Now those projects are completing—and flooding the market with new inventory.

6. Changes to Development Financing Rules

In Fall 2024, changes to the Real Estate Development Marketing Act extended the timeline developers have to sell 70% of a building from 12 to 18 months. While this gives them more time to secure financing, it’s also delaying clearance of unsold inventory and increasing total supply on the market.

💡 What Does This Mean for You?

Whether this is good or bad news depends entirely on your role in the market.

🏡 If You’re a Buyer:

This is your moment.

  • More inventory = more choices

  • Greater negotiating power

  • Downward pressure on prices

Even if you’re not buying pre-construction, the ripple effect across the resale market will benefit you.

📉 If You’re a Seller:

You need to be strategic and competitive.

  • Focus on today’s prices, not what your neighbor sold for 2 years ago.

  • Understand the current market conditions and buyer expectations. If you’re selling a newer condo, especially, you’ll need to stand out on pricing and presentation.

💰 If You’re an Investor:

This is a mixed bag.

  • Rents may decline by 4–5% over the next 12 months

  • But you gain negotiating power and access to better deals If you can buy the right unit at the right price, you may still come out ahead despite the softer rental market.

📈 Looking Ahead: Not All Doom and Gloom

While short-term challenges are real, there’s room for optimism in the long term:

  • Developers are shifting focus to purpose-built rental buildings, which are easier to finance and in high demand.

  • Housing starts are down in 2025, meaning by 2027–2029, we could see a supply shortage in for-sale condos again.

In other words, the market is adjusting, and this temporary oversupply could create buying opportunities today and balance in the years ahead.

Final Thoughts

Yes, we might see a spike in unsold condo inventory. But no, it’s not the end of the world. It’s a natural part of a cyclical real estate market—and if you’re informed, you can use it to your advantage.

I’ll continue keeping you up to date on the Vancouver real estate market. If you’re looking to buy, sell, or invest, or even if you just want advice, feel free to reach out anytime. My contact info is below.

Thanks for reading!

Who’s Buying in the Vancouver Real Estate Market Right Now?

Oleg First time buyers, For Buyers, For Sellers, Opinion, Videos

The Vancouver real estate market is undoubtedly slower than usual, but that doesn’t mean people have stopped buying. In fact, just last month alone, over 2,000 properties were purchased across Metro Vancouver. So, who exactly is buying real estate in this market — and why?

As a Vancouver real estate agent with over 11 years of experience helping buyers and sellers navigate the market, I want to break it down for you. Understanding who is active in the market today can help you make smarter decisions, whether you’re planning to buy or sell.

1. Upsizers Are Taking Advantage

One major group of buyers right now are upsizers — people moving from a smaller property, like a townhouse, into a detached home.

When the Vancouver housing market softens, upsizing actually becomes a smart financial move. Here’s why: if prices drop 10%, a $1.5M detached house falls by $150,000, while a $750,000 townhouse only drops by $75,000. Upsizers gain more value in the larger property relative to their loss on the smaller one.

If you’re considering buying a larger home in Vancouver, this slower market could offer the perfect opportunity.

2. First-Time Home Buyers Are Entering the Market

Another group actively buying real estate in Vancouver are first-time home buyers, particularly renters who have been forced to move due to landlord sales or end-of-lease notices.

For renters who already have a down payment saved and feel secure in their jobs, buying now — even in a slower market — often makes more sense than entering into another expensive rental lease.

3. Downsizers Are Selling and Moving to Condos

People who have owned their homes for 20+ years, many of whom are mortgage-free, are starting to downsize.

Despite a cooling market, Vancouver real estate prices remain historically high. Downsizers can sell their detached homes, purchase a condo or townhouse, and free up capital for retirement — an appealing option especially with recent stock market volatility.

4. Family-Oriented Investors Planning for the Future

Unlike speculators, these family investors buy pre-sale properties now with plans for their children to live there in a few years.

These buyers aren’t looking for a quick flip — they’re planning ahead for their kids, locking in today’s prices and setting their families up for future success in the Vancouver real estate market.

5. Who Is NOT Buying Right Now?

Notably absent from today’s market are short-term speculators and long-term real estate investors.

Higher interest rates and dropping rental rates in Vancouver have made investment properties less attractive. Additionally, with less opportunity for quick gains, speculators who usually target pre-sales have largely pulled back.

Should You Buy or Sell Real Estate in Vancouver Now?

Deciding whether to buy or sell depends on two factors:

  1. The current market conditions

  2. Your personal circumstances

Sometimes, even if the market isn’t “perfect,” your situation (family growth, job stability, moving needs) may make buying or selling the right move. As always, it’s important to consult with a local Vancouver real estate expert to assess your specific situation.

Final Thoughts

While the Vancouver real estate market has cooled compared to recent years, there is still a healthy amount of buying activity — especially among upsizers, first-time buyers, downsizers, and family-oriented investors.

If you’re planning to buy your first home, upsize to a larger property, or downsize for retirement, understanding who else is active in the market can give you a strategic advantage.

If you have any questions about buying or selling real estate in Vancouver, I’m always happy to help! Feel free to contact me directly — whether you need advice, a personalized market evaluation, or just want to chat about your next move.

👉 Download my FREE Vancouver First-Time Home Buyer Guide here (no signup required!)
👉 Get in touch via email, phone, or text for expert advice tailored to you.

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✅ Selling a home in Vancouver
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✅ Vancouver pre-sale condos

 

The Growing Housing Affordability Gap in Vancouver Is Pricing Out the Middle Class

Oleg Articles, First time buyers, For Buyers, For Sellers, Market update, Videos

The difference between household income and what homebuyers can actually qualify for in Vancouver continues to widen — making homeownership increasingly out of reach for many.

According to a new report from Ratesdotca, a provider of digital insurance and financial services, the gap in Vancouver between what the average household can afford and what they actually need to earn to purchase an average-priced home is the highest in Canada — a staggering $121,053.

Victor Tran, mortgage and real estate expert at Ratesdotca, says the current economic climate is discouraging for would-be buyers:

“The current economic environment is not encouraging for many would-be homeowners, who may be uneasy taking on a large debt such as a mortgage in uncertain times.”

While sluggish sales have softened prices in some parts of the country, markets like Vancouver remain resilient, with prices staying elevated due to ongoing demand and limited supply. Tran believes that meaningful price drops are unlikely in traditionally desirable cities like Vancouver.

Using data from Statistics Canada and wage growth projections from Normandin-Beaudry, Ratesdotca calculated the maximum mortgage an average Vancouver household can afford. That number was then compared to the income actually needed to buy a home at the average market price.

In Vancouver, where the average home price is $1.2 million, a household would need to earn over $250,000 annually to qualify. But in reality, the average family can only qualify for a mortgage of about $600,000 — leaving a massive affordability gap.

“In Vancouver, this gap represents more than an entire income for many households,” the report said.

Key Findings from the Report:

  • Vancouver has the worst affordability gap in the country, with a shortfall of $121,053 between what’s needed and what’s realistically affordable for the average household.

  • Housing in Alberta remains more accessible, with Calgary showing an $18,643 income surplus and Edmonton leading with a $50,604 surplus.

  • High housing costs in Vancouver have triggered migration trends. The city has seen a significant loss in population, with residents moving to more affordable regions — a pattern also seen in Toronto and Montreal.

  • Condos are more affordable than detached homes, but the situation is still bleak. In Vancouver, the income gap to afford a condo remains substantial, although better than for single-family homes.

Tran explains the gap has grown significantly in Vancouver over the last five years, largely due to limited land availability and soaring demand. And even with more development or zoning changes, affordability will remain a major issue unless household incomes rise or buyers come up with significantly larger down payments.

“Unless people can come up with a higher down payment, their income can only qualify for so much,” he said.
“It’s difficult to find a new job with a substantial income jump, so it really comes down to how much more money can be put into that down payment.”

Despite the challenges, Tran believes the market will continue to move — just not for everyone.

“Unfortunately, a large percentage of the population in Vancouver won’t be able to enter the market. Many young people in their 20s and 30s are starting to give up on the dream of homeownership.”

The silver lining? Rents are starting to decline slightly, providing some relief for those staying out of the ownership race.

“There’s nothing wrong with renting,” Tran says. “If we look at countries in Europe and Asia, it’s totally normal to rent for life — people are generally happier and not tied to overwhelming debt.”

MASSIVE Problems for Vancouver Developers – The Crisis Deepens

Oleg First time buyers, For Buyers, For Sellers, Market update, Opinion, Videos

The Vancouver real estate market is undergoing a major shift. Just a few years ago, many Vancouver developers moved away from condo sales and into rental projects due to strong demand and rising rents. However, the landscape has changed, and developers are now reconsidering their rental strategies.

Why Are Rents Falling in Greater Vancouver?

Several factors have led to a decline in rental demand across Greater Vancouver housing:

  • Increased Supply: More purpose-built rental buildings are hitting the market, adding thousands of new units.

  • Provincial Short-Term Rental Rules: Stricter Airbnb regulations have freed up long-term rental units, increasing availability.

  • Federal Cap on International Students: Fewer incoming students means less demand for rental apartments.

  • High Cost of Living: Many residents are leaving Metro Vancouver for more affordable cities.

As a result, landlords and developers are now offering incentives like free rent months and pet-friendly policies to attract tenants.

The Impact of Senakw Towers on the Vancouver Rental Market

One of the biggest concerns for Vancouver developers is the Senakw Towers project. This massive development will add 1,400 rental units in Kitsilano by the end of 2024, with thousands more in later phases.

Developers fear this sudden influx of rental units will further drive rents down, making it harder for existing projects to lease up. With top-of-market rents already declining from $7 per square foot to under $6, landlords and investors are feeling the squeeze.

What Does This Mean for the Future of Vancouver Housing?

For renters, falling prices and better incentives are a welcome change after years of record-high rents. However, for Vancouver developers, this downturn presents financial risks, especially for those who paid high land costs expecting strong rental returns.

Experts predict that if the rental market remains weak, land prices could eventually adjust downward. But Vancouver’s unique market—where demand for single-family homes keeps land prices high—makes this uncertain.

Final Thoughts: A Temporary Dip or a Long-Term Shift?

The Greater Vancouver housing market is in transition. While lower rents provide relief for tenants, developers are now reassessing the profitability of rental projects. Some may delay or cancel future developments, which could eventually lead to another housing supply crunch down the road.

Will the market stabilize, or is this the start of a bigger correction in Vancouver real estate? Only time will tell.

Will the Bank of Canada’s Rate Cut Really Boost the Housing Market?

Oleg Articles, First time buyers, For Buyers, For Sellers, Market update, News, Videos

The Bank of Canada has officially lowered its benchmark interest rate to 2.75%, marking its seventh consecutive cut. While this move is expected to provide some relief for homeowners renewing their mortgages, experts remain skeptical about whether it will truly stimulate homebuying activity in today’s sluggish housing market.

Lower Rates, But Are Buyers Ready?

Historically, lower interest rates have encouraged borrowing and real estate activity. However, experts argue that this latest cut may have limited impact on the market. Mortgage rates are still more than double what they were in 2020 and 2021, when borrowers locked in historically low rates below 2%. Many of those homeowners are now facing significantly higher costs as they renew their mortgages, adding strain to household budgets.

“The impact will be limited,” says Rebecca Oakes, Vice President of Data and Analytics at Equifax Canada. “Many borrowers who locked in at historically low rates are still renewing at significantly higher interest costs, which continues to strain household budgets.”

Uncertainty Keeping Buyers on the Sidelines

Despite the lower rates, homebuyers remain hesitant due to broader economic uncertainty. The ongoing global trade war and rising costs of goods have created a “wait-and-see” approach among both buyers and sellers.

“There is a lot of uncertainty,” explains Samantha Villiard, a regional vice president with Re/Max Canada. “That has prompted households to take a cautious approach.”

Fellow Re/Max VP Kingsley Ma agrees, stating that many would-be homebuyers and sellers are choosing to wait for the economy to stabilize before making any major financial decisions. He adds that a small 25-basis-point rate cut is unlikely to be a deciding factor for buyers.

“If you lose your job, you won’t be able to pay your mortgage—so it doesn’t matter if interest rates are lower,” Ma points out.

Mortgage Renewals & Rising Delinquencies

For homeowners who have renewed their mortgages in the past year, affordability remains a challenge. According to Equifax, Ontario’s mortgage delinquency rate—the percentage of homeowners missing mortgage payments for at least 90 days—nearly doubled in the final quarter of last year, reaching 0.22%. While lower rates may slow the rate of delinquencies, they won’t erase the financial pressures that have built up over time.

Will Fixed-Rate Mortgages Drop?

While variable-rate mortgages tend to move in sync with the Bank of Canada’s benchmark rate, fixed-rate mortgages are tied to government bond yields. Following the latest rate cut, bond yields actually increased, which could limit how much fixed mortgage rates decline.

“This is a key reason why I don’t believe mortgage rates will come down materially enough to eliminate renewal risks,” says Carl Gomez, Chief Economist at CoStar Group. “There was a promise that lower interest rates would reduce mortgage rates—but fixed rates haven’t dropped significantly.”

Housing Affordability Still a Major Challenge

Even with lower borrowing costs, home prices remain out of reach for many Canadians. The average home price in Canada sat at $709,200 in January 2025, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). While prices are slightly lower than their peak in 2022, they are still 33% higher than in early 2020, when the Bank of Canada first slashed interest rates to nearly zero.

Gomez stresses that affordability remains a huge barrier, with high mortgage rates making homeownership less accessible for first-time buyers.

What’s Next for the Housing Market?

The latest rate cut is good news for existing homeowners looking to renew their mortgages at slightly lower rates. However, the broader housing market remains in a holding pattern, with economic uncertainty and affordability challenges keeping many buyers and sellers on the sidelines.

Will further rate cuts in 2025 make a bigger impact? That remains to be seen. For now, the housing market is far from a full recovery, and homebuyers will need more than just lower interest rates to regain confidence.

Bank of Canada cuts interest rate to 2.75%

Oleg First time buyers, For Buyers, For Sellers
Bank of Canada cuts interest rate to 2.75%

Bank of Canada Lowers Interest Rate Amid U.S. Trade War Concerns

The Bank of Canada has reduced its overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% as ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. begin to impact the Canadian economy. The announcement was made on Wednesday, with Governor Tiff Macklem citing economic uncertainty as a key factor behind the decision.

Economic Growth Faces New Challenges

Macklem explained that Canada started the year with strong GDP growth and inflation within the central bank’s 2% target. However, the uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-Canada trade relationship has led to reduced business investments, hiring slowdowns, and weakened consumer confidence. Manufacturing businesses, in particular, have adjusted their sales forecasts downward in response to the volatility.

Against this backdrop, the Bank of Canada opted for a quarter-point rate cut, though Macklem noted that a surge in exports ahead of anticipated tariffs might temporarily offset the slowdown.

“While it is still too early to see the full effects of new tariffs on economic activity, our surveys indicate that the mere threat of additional tariffs is already impacting business and consumer behavior,” Macklem said in a press conference.

Rate Cuts Continue Amid Growing Uncertainty

This latest rate cut marks the seventh consecutive reduction since June 2024. Economists suggest that the central bank is taking precautionary measures to cushion the economy against potential shocks from higher tariffs.

“The Bank of Canada is clearly concerned that an economy which was otherwise stable now requires rate cuts to mitigate the impact of rising trade tensions,” said Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC.

Inflation Pressures and Consumer Costs

Internal research from the central bank suggests that Canadian businesses plan to raise prices to counteract the effects of tariffs. Macklem acknowledged that while reduced consumer and business spending typically lowers inflation, increased costs from trade disputes could have the opposite effect.

“We are now facing a new crisis. The severity of the economic impact depends on the scope and duration of U.S. tariffs, but the uncertainty alone is already causing damage,” Macklem warned.

While the Bank of Canada cannot prevent the financial strain from tariffs, it can use interest rates to manage inflationary pressures. The bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, driven largely by rising housing costs.

The Impact on Canadian Inflation

Macklem outlined several ways tariffs could influence inflation in Canada. The weaker Canadian dollar makes imports more expensive, retaliatory tariffs add costs, and businesses are forced to seek new suppliers and markets, all of which contribute to rising prices.

“Ultimately, these costs get passed on to consumers,” Macklem explained. “Our goal is to ensure any inflationary impact remains temporary.”

Recession Fears and Future Outlook

Although Macklem avoided using the word “recession” in his remarks, some economists believe a downturn is possible if trade tensions persist. Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers stated that while growth prospects look uncertain, the central bank does not yet have a formal recession forecast.

Looking ahead, the Bank of Canada’s next interest rate meeting is scheduled for April 16, when it will release its quarterly monetary policy report. BMO chief economist Douglas Porter predicts that ongoing trade disputes will likely keep the Bank in an easing stance, with additional rate cuts expected in the coming months.

“Our assumption is that Canada will face extended trade-related challenges, leading the Bank to cut rates further,” Porter noted. He anticipates three additional 25 basis point cuts, which would bring the overnight lending rate down to 2%.

As the situation unfolds, Canadian businesses and consumers will need to navigate an increasingly uncertain economic landscape, with the Bank of Canada closely monitoring developments and adjusting policy as needed.

Bank of Canada cuts interest rate to 2.75% as country faces ‘new crisis’ from tariffs

Vancouver Real Estate Market Update – March 2025

Oleg First time buyers, For Buyers, For Sellers, Market update, Statistics, Videos

As we step into March 2025, Metro Vancouver’s real estate market is showing signs of balance after a surge in new listings earlier in the year. If you’re a buyer or seller, understanding these latest trends will help you make informed decisions.

A Shift Toward Market Balance

Following a 46% increase in new listings in January, February brought a more moderate rise in newly listed properties. This shift has helped keep the market conditions balanced, offering buyers a broader selection of homes while maintaining stability for sellers.

According to the Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR), Metro Vancouver recorded 1,827 residential sales in February 2025—an 11.7% decrease from the same time last year. This number also sits 28.9% below the 10-year seasonal average of 2,571 sales. While sales activity slowed, the inventory of homes available has increased significantly.

Key Market Stats for February 2025

  • New Listings: 5,057 properties (+10.9% YoY, 11.6% above the 10-year average)
  • Total Active Listings: 12,744 properties (+32.3% YoY, 36.4% above the 10-year average)
  • Sales-to-Active Listings Ratio: 14.8% overall
    • Detached homes: 10.7%
    • Townhomes: 18.5%
    • Condos: 16.8%

With more inventory on the market, buyers have greater choice, reducing the urgency to make quick decisions. However, the market remains stable, with neither strong upward nor downward pressure on prices.

Home Prices Hold Steady

Despite the shifting market conditions, prices have remained relatively flat. The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for Metro Vancouver is currently $1,169,100, reflecting a 1.1% decrease compared to February 2024 and a slight 0.3% decrease from January 2025.

Here’s a breakdown of benchmark prices by property type:

  • Detached Homes: $2,006,100 (+1.8% YoY, unchanged from January 2025)
  • Condos: $747,500 (-2.8% YoY, -0.1% from January 2025)
  • Townhomes: $1,087,100 (-1.2% YoY, -1.7% from January 2025)

What’s Next for Vancouver Real Estate?

With the Bank of Canada potentially lowering interest rates in mid-March, borrowing conditions may improve for buyers. This could drive more activity in the spring market, especially with the largest selection of homes available since pre-pandemic times.

According to GVR’s Director of Economics, Andrew Lis, the market’s balanced conditions suggest a flatter price trajectory in the short term. However, as spring approaches, it will be interesting to see whether buyers take advantage of these favorable conditions and if sellers adjust their strategies accordingly.

Final Thoughts

For buyers, the increased inventory provides more options and negotiating power. For sellers, accurate pricing and strategic marketing will be key to securing a successful sale in this balanced market.

If you’re considering buying or selling in Metro Vancouver, staying up-to-date with the latest trends is crucial. Reach out today for expert advice tailored to your needs!

Could a Trade War Actually Make Housing More Affordable in Canada?

Oleg First time buyers, For Buyers, For Sellers, News, Opinion, Statistics, Videos

The Canadian housing market has been a hot topic for years, with skyrocketing prices making it increasingly difficult for young buyers to enter the market. But what if an economic shift—such as a trade war—could change that? While it may sound counterintuitive, there are several ways a U.S.-Canada trade war could impact housing affordability, and not all of them are bad for first-time buyers.

The Three Key Factors of Housing Affordability

Housing affordability is influenced by three major factors: mortgage rates, home prices, and income levels. If a trade war triggers economic uncertainty, these factors could shift in ways that make homeownership more attainable for some buyers.

1. Mortgage Rates Could Drop Further

The anticipation of economic instability has already put downward pressure on mortgage rates. If a full-fledged trade war erupts, the Bank of Canada may cut interest rates further to stimulate the economy. Lower mortgage rates mean cheaper borrowing costs, making it easier for buyers to afford a home.

2. Home Prices Could Stagnate or Decline

Historically, economic downturns have led to stagnant or falling home prices. This could be bad news for baby boomers looking to downsize, but for young buyers struggling to afford a home, it might be the break they’ve been waiting for. If prices level off or decline while mortgage rates remain low, homeownership could finally become a reality for many first-time buyers.

3. Wage Growth and Economic Stability

One potential downside is that a trade war could slow down wage growth and increase job uncertainty. While mortgage rates and home prices may become more favorable, a weak job market could make it harder for some to qualify for loans or feel confident in making such a major financial decision. However, for those with stable employment, this could be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to buy in a softer market.

The Big Question: Is This an Opportunity?

For young buyers, a trade war could create a rare window to enter the housing market before prices climb again. While economic instability isn’t ideal, those with secure jobs and long-term plans may find that lower prices and better mortgage rates outweigh the risks.

What Should You Do?

If you’re considering buying a home in Vancouver or anywhere in Canada, it’s crucial to stay informed and work with an experienced real estate professional. Timing the market can be tricky, but understanding these economic trends can help you make the right decision.

💬 What do you think? Could a trade war actually help young buyers? Share your thoughts in the comments below or reach out for expert real estate advice!

For personalized real estate guidance in Vancouver, contact me today!

Vancouver Real Estate Market Outlook for 2025

Oleg First time buyers, For Buyers, For Sellers, Market update, News, Statistics, Videos

British Columbia’s housing market is set for a year of mixed results in 2025. While resale activity is expected to rebound after years of slowdown, the rental market will likely experience softening with higher vacancy rates. Meanwhile, new home construction is projected to see only marginal growth as demand for presale units gradually returns.

Regional Overview: How Population Growth is Shaping the Market

Slower population growth in British Columbia is expected to have a significant impact on housing demand. Economic growth is anticipated to be sluggish in early 2025, with employment conditions weakening until mid-year before rebounding in 2026 and 2027. While wages and disposable income have seen strong growth in recent years, they are expected to remain flat in 2025, affecting affordability and purchasing power.

Additionally, changes to Canada’s immigration policy will influence housing demand. Metro Vancouver remains a top destination for international migrants, but overall net migration is expected to slow. Meanwhile, high housing costs will continue driving some B.C. residents to seek more affordable options in areas like Chilliwack, Victoria, and Kelowna. Interprovincial migration trends suggest a growing number of British Columbians moving to the Prairie provinces in search of lower-cost housing.

Resale Market: A Rebound on the Horizon

After two years of declining sales, Vancouver and Victoria’s resale markets are poised for a turnaround in 2025. Lower mortgage rates are expected to expand borrowing capacity, allowing more buyers to enter the market. While sales in 2025 are projected to increase, they will likely remain below the highs seen in 2021.

Recent reductions in interest rates began to impact resale activity in late 2024, with stronger sales compared to the previous year. This trend is expected to continue, leading to increased demand and upward pressure on home prices. However, the effects of slowing immigration will be more pronounced in the rental market than in resale activity, with the biggest impact concentrated in Metro Vancouver.

Home Prices: A Year of Growth Followed by Stabilization

Increased sales activity will help absorb existing inventory in the form of unsold new homes and active resale listings. The average time homes spend on the market is expected to decline slightly after increasing over the past two years. This will contribute to a more competitive market, leading to price growth primarily in 2025, followed by marginal increases in the years beyond.

Higher borrowing capacity—enabled by wage growth and low mortgage rates—will support home price appreciation. Additionally, investor activity is expected to pick up, particularly in the presale market, as expectations for price growth return.

New Home Construction: Modest Growth Expected

Housing starts in Vancouver and Victoria are projected to increase slightly in 2025 after a sluggish 2024. The growth will be led by multi-unit developments, particularly in the rental sector, driven by government incentives and historically tight rental conditions. However, as more rental supply enters the market, developers may become cautious due to rising vacancy rates and slowing rent growth, which could limit new rental projects in the coming years.

Condominium construction remains challenging due to pricing pressures and weaker presale demand. Many projects have been delayed due to high unabsorbed inventory, with developers taking out additional financing to manage existing units. While lower mortgage rates and increased resale activity may help revive stalled projects, demand for high-priced presale units remains uncertain, particularly in Vancouver’s core.

Single-detached home construction is also expected to recover in 2025, supported by lower interest rates. However, long-term growth in this segment will be constrained by land shortages and high development costs.

Rental Market: Higher Vacancy Rates and Slower Rent Growth

The rental market in British Columbia is expected to see a significant increase in vacancy rates after years of historically low levels. This trend began in 2024 and is projected to continue as a record number of rental units enter the market. Many of these units will be priced at higher rents, potentially slowing absorption rates.

Lower population growth, particularly among new immigrants who typically enter the rental market first, will further dampen demand. While rental prices will continue rising due to the introduction of high-priced units, asking rents may face downward pressure as landlords compete for tenants. This could lead to improved affordability and increased tenant turnover as the gap between occupied unit rents and new rental prices narrows.

Key Takeaways for 2025

  • Resale Market: Sales activity will rebound due to lower mortgage rates, pushing prices to new highs by the end of the year.
  • New Construction: A modest recovery is expected, but long-term growth remains uncertain due to affordability constraints and land shortages.
  • Rental Market: Rising vacancy rates and slowing rent growth will ease pressure on renters, though newly built units may struggle with absorption.
  • Regional Trends: Metro Vancouver will continue to lead the province in housing activity, while more buyers seek affordability in areas like Surrey, Burnaby, and Victoria.
  • Government Policy: The increase in the insured mortgage price limit from $1 million to $1.5 million will boost sales, particularly for townhomes, benefiting dual-income households.

Looking Ahead

While 2025 will bring renewed activity in B.C.’s housing market, long-term challenges remain. Rising inventory levels, affordability concerns, and shifting migration trends will shape the future of real estate in the province. Whether you’re looking to buy, sell, or invest, staying informed on these trends will be crucial in making the right decisions in an evolving market.

For more insights on Vancouver and B.C.’s real estate market, subscribe to our updates and stay ahead of the latest trends!

Vancouver Enters the ‘Big Leagues’ of Development with Market Rental Housing Strategy

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The City of Vancouver is taking a bold step in tackling the housing crisis by launching a market rental housing strategy that could redefine urban development in Canada. Announced by Mayor Ken Sim, the plan involves building 4,300 market rental units on five city-owned sites, with the goal of creating long-term revenue to support affordable housing and community infrastructure.

A New Approach to Housing Development

Unlike traditional housing projects that rely on private developers, this initiative positions the City of Vancouver as both the landowner and developer—a first-of-its-kind move in Canada. While the city has previously used this model for non-market housing, this marks the first major venture into market rentals.

The Vancouver Housing Development Office (VHDO), established in 2023, will oversee the project. Two of the five proposed sites are located in downtown Vancouver, with others situated in Kingsway (2400 Motel site), Marpole, and Main & Terminal.

“This is about leveraging our land not only to deliver much-needed market rental housing but also to pilot a new way to generate non-tax revenue for the city,” said Mayor Sim. The additional revenue is expected to fund community centers, the Vancouver Affordable Housing Endowment Fund, and other city initiatives.

Balancing Public and Private Interests

City officials have emphasized that this strategy is about financial sustainability. The $6 billion property endowment fund, originally established in 1975, will play a key role. The goal is to generate consistent returns to fund public services, moving beyond the traditional model of relying solely on taxes and developer contributions.

“There is another definition of public benefit—the ongoing income stream coming in,” said Grace Cheng, the city’s director of long-term strategy and planning. This means funds could be allocated to renewing libraries, improving water and sewer infrastructure, or enhancing other public services.

The Financial Impact: Billions in Play

While the cost of development is yet to be finalized, city officials estimate that the project’s financial impact will be in the billions.

“The first task is to get these sites zoned for highest and best use under market rental tenure,” said Brad Foster, director of market rental housing at VHDO. “The next task will be, ‘How do we get them built?’ And that’s where all the finance discussions will take place.”

Deputy city manager Armin Amrolia reinforced this, saying, “This is the big leagues of development, and we aim to not shy away from that.”

Who Can Afford These Rentals?

Once completed, these rental units will be targeted toward middle-income earners, with household eligibility ranging between $90,000 and $194,000 per year, based on today’s market rates. This move is expected to address the housing gap for professionals and working families who often struggle to find affordable housing in Vancouver’s competitive market.

The Future of Vancouver Housing

The five sites designated for this project include:

  • Pacific & Hornby: Two towers (54 and 40 stories) with 1,136 homes.
  • Main & Terminal: Currently a parking lot, planned for redevelopment.
  • Granville Bridge North End: Four proposed towers.
  • 2400 Motel (Kingsway): Major transformation planned.
  • Granville & 67th (Marpole): Another key development site.

This ambitious strategy reflects a “made-in-Vancouver” solution to the housing crisis—one that prioritizes long-term financial stability while increasing rental supply. If successful, it could serve as a model for other cities facing similar challenges.

What’s Next?

The city still needs to finalize zoning, secure development partners, and approve financing agreements before breaking ground. However, officials remain optimistic that this bold initiative will help reshape Vancouver’s housing landscape for the better.

With billions of dollars in play and thousands of new homes on the horizon, Vancouver is stepping into a new era of real estate development—one where the city itself is leading the charge.