Royal LePage’s latest market forecast paints a vivid picture of Canada’s real estate landscape, predicting a significant 9% year-over-year increase in home prices by the fourth quarter of 2024. This upward revision stems from a robust first quarter, with strong price appreciation expected through the second and third quarters before tapering off towards year-end, aligning with seasonal trends.
The forecast highlights notable upgrades in major markets, particularly the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), where prices are anticipated to surge by 10%, surpassing the national average. Montreal follows closely behind with an 8.5% projected increase, while Calgary, Quebec City, and Greater Vancouver are forecasted to experience respective jumps of 8%, 8%, and 5.5%.
Royal LePage President Phil Soper attributes the current modest price rises to consumers, particularly first-time buyers, adapting to higher borrowing costs. However, he anticipates a steeper appreciation curve once the central bank enacts anticipated rate cuts, drawing in rate-focused buyers.
While easing rates will influence price upticks, the fundamental driver remains the severe housing shortage across the country. Soper warns of an intensifying seller’s market, foretelling a busy spring and fall for Canadian buyers and sellers alike.
Looking ahead, Royal LePage’s forecast suggests that by the end of 2026, the majority of mortgages will have transitioned into an elevated borrowing rate environment. Yet, this is not expected to significantly dampen the housing market’s resilience. Soper points to Canadians meeting their mortgage obligations amid record-low default rates and income growth offsetting increased mortgage costs. However, he anticipates a pullback in discretionary spending as individuals prioritize maintaining homeownership.
In summary, Royal LePage’s forecast outlines a dynamic Canadian housing market characterized by soaring prices, driven by a combination of factors including adapting consumer behavior, impending rate cuts, and the persistent housing shortage. Despite looming challenges, the market remains robust, with buyers and sellers navigating towards a seller-centric environment amidst projections of continued price appreciation.
Spring breathes new life into Metro Vancouver’s real estate scene, ushering in a wave of activity from sellers and expanding options for buyers. The latest report from Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR) reveals a significant surge in MLS® listings, with a remarkable uptick of nearly 23 percent compared to the previous year.
March 2024 witnessed 2,415 residential sales in the region, marking a slight dip of 4.7 percent from the same period in 2023. Despite this minor decline, the market maintains its vigor, fueled by demand for competitively priced properties in strategic locales, shifting the balance further into sellers’ favor.
Across detached, attached, and apartment segments, new listings on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) soared by 15.9 percent compared to March 2023, reaching a total of 5,002. Presently, the MLS® system boasts 10,552 properties for sale, indicating a substantial 22.5 percent increase from March 2023.
Analysis of the sales-to-active listings ratio for March 2024 reveals a robust figure of 23.8 percent across all property types. Specifically, the ratio stands at 18.2 percent for detached homes, 31.3 percent for attached homes, and 25.8 percent for apartments. These figures underscore the pressure on home prices, with ratios below 12 percent suggesting downward trends and those surpassing 20 percent indicating upward momentum.
Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics, acknowledges the market’s relative cooling compared to the previous year but notes modest month-over-month price gains, ranging from one to two percent on aggregate. While Lis anticipates potential cuts to the Bank of Canada’s policy rate in 2024, he warns that these measures may not significantly ease affordability challenges, given the enduring constraints on borrowing power.
The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver presently stands at $1,196,800, reflecting a 4.5 percent year-over-year increase.
Breaking down the sales data, detached home sales reached 694 in March 2024, down by 5.4 percent compared to March 2023. The benchmark price for detached homes stands at $2,007,900, up by 7.4 percent from March 2023.
Apartment home sales totaled 1,207 in March 2024, marking a 7.9 percent decrease from March 2023. The benchmark price for apartments is $777,500, showing a 5.7 percent year-over-year increase.
Attached home sales witnessed a modest increase of 6.2 percent in March 2024 compared to March 2023, totaling 495 sales. The benchmark price for townhouses rose to $1,112,800, reflecting a 5 percent increase from March 2023.
In summary, while Metro Vancouver’s real estate market experiences heightened seller activity, buyers should anticipate stiff competition, particularly for attractively priced properties in sought-after locations.
In February 2024, Metro Vancouver’s housing market saw a notable increase in new listings, alleviating concerns about potential overheating. According to Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR), new listings rose by 31% year-over-year, reaching 4,560 properties listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®). This surge in listings provided buyers with more choices as the spring and summer markets approached.
Residential sales in the region totaled 2,070 in February 2024, marking a 13.5% increase from the previous year. However, this figure was 23.3% below the 10-year seasonal average, highlighting a slower pace compared to historical trends. GVR’s director of economics and data analytics, Andrew Lis, expressed relief at the increase in new listings, stating that it would ease the pressure that had built up in January.
Despite the rise in listings, the total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver increased by 16.3% compared to February 2023, totaling 9,634 properties. This was 3% above the 10-year seasonal average. The sales-to-active listings ratio for February 2024 stood at 22.4%, with varying ratios for detached homes (16%), attached homes (27.9%), and apartments (25.9%).
Lis noted that the increase in new listings did not sufficiently counterbalance the pace of sales to prevent price acceleration. Consequently, the market remained in sellers’ territory, contributing to modest price growth across all segments. However, benchmark prices were still below the peak observed in the spring of 2022, before the full impact of the Bank of Canada’s tightening cycle was internalized.
The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver reached $1,183,300, reflecting a 4.5% increase from February 2023. While there was modest price growth across all property types, benchmark prices remained below the 2022 peak.
Detached home sales increased by 8.3%, reaching 560 in February 2024, with a benchmark price of $1,972,400. Apartment home sales saw a 17.7% increase, totaling 1,092, with a benchmark price of $770,700. Attached home sales reached 403, marking a 10.1% increase, with a townhouse benchmark price of $1,094,700. Overall, the market demonstrated resilience, showing both increased supply and demand, with moderate price growth in February 2024.
New Home Flipping Tax to Hit B.C. Property Sales: Here’s What You Should Know
Premier David Eby has set his sights on speculators, and with the unveiling of the 2024 budget, his government has introduced the “BC Home Flipping Tax” aimed at curbing speculative activity in the housing market.
Effective January 1, the new tax mandates that any profits accrued from the sale of a residential property within two years of its purchase will be subject to taxation, albeit with certain exceptions.
Outlined in the forthcoming legislation to be passed during the spring session, the tax will follow a progressive scale: 20 percent on profits from homes sold within the initial year, gradually decreasing to 10 percent if sold within 18 months, and ultimately dropping to zero after two years of ownership.
According to the Ministry of Finance, this tax measure is anticipated to generate approximately $43 million in annual tax revenue.
“The tax will be applicable to income derived from the sale of properties with a housing unit and those zoned for residential use. It will also extend to income generated from the assignment of contracts related to the purchase of these properties,” states the Budget and Fiscal Plan.
However, exemptions will be granted for individuals selling their primary residence within two years of acquisition, with a maximum exclusion of $20,000 when calculating taxable income.
Exceptions for circumstances such as divorce, death, illness, and work-related relocation will also be considered to waive the tax liability. Details regarding the appeals process and required documentation are yet to be finalized, with tax administrators expected to develop forms and guidelines between now and January.
The revenue collected from this tax will be earmarked for the construction of new affordable housing units across the province, aligning with the government’s objective to bolster housing supply.
Set to take effect on January 1, 2025, the tax will be applicable to properties sold after this date, regardless of the purchase date.
In addition to the new tax, the B.C. budget confirms substantial investments in housing initiatives, including programs like BC Builds. The budget also offers a comprehensive analysis of the housing market’s current state and future trajectory.
Despite challenges such as declining building permits, growing unsold inventory in certain regions, and inter-provincial migration losses, the ministry anticipates a rebound in home sales activity in 2024. Prices are projected to increase by an average of 2.3 percent in the current year and 2.9 percent in 2025, indicating a cautiously optimistic outlook for the real estate market.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reported a strong start for home sales in Metro Vancouver in January 2024. Residential sales surged by 38.5% compared to January 2023, totaling 1,427 units. This increase favored sellers, signaling a shift from the balanced market conditions at the end of 2023. However, the pace of new property listings did not match the rise in sales, resulting in a 20.2% decrease from the 10-year seasonal average.
Andrew Lis, REBGV’s director of economics and data analytics, noted the unexpected strength in January sales following a quiet December. He expressed concerns about insufficient inventory potentially leading to increased competition among buyers, pushing the market back into sellers’ territory.
In January 2024, 3,788 properties were newly listed for sale, marking a 14.5% increase from January 2023. However, this figure remained 9.1% below the 10-year seasonal average. The total number of properties listed for sale in Metro Vancouver increased by 9.8% compared to January 2023, totaling 8,633 units, albeit slightly below the 10-year average.
The sales-to-active listings ratio for January 2024 stood at 17.2%, with ratios varying across property types: 11.9% for detached homes, 22.9% for attached, and 19.9% for apartments. Analysis of historical data indicated downward pressure on prices below 12% and upward pressure above 20% for a sustained period.
The forecast for 2024 predicts a 2-3% price increase by year-end, driven by demand outpacing inventory. Lis emphasized that the January figures might indicate a stronger market than initially anticipated and suggested monitoring February data to confirm trends.
The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver was $1,161,300, reflecting a 4.2% increase from January 2023 and a 0.6% decrease from December 2023. Sales of detached homes increased by 28% year-over-year, with a benchmark price of $1,942,400, up 7.3% from January 2023. Apartment sales rose by 30.6%, with a benchmark price of $751,900, while attached home sales surged by 82.7%, with a benchmark price of $1,066,700 for townhouses.
The data suggests a robust market at the beginning of 2024, with sales increases across property types. However, concerns linger regarding the imbalance between supply and demand, potentially affecting future market dynamics.
The ambitious high-rise project in Vancouver’s West End is facing a multitude of challenges, as developers find themselves in receivership, according to recent filings in the Supreme Court of British Columbia. The venture, located at the intersection of 830-850 Thurlow Street and 1045 Haro Street, was designed to feature a striking 55-storey strata condo tower alongside a 15-storey counterpart, comprising a total of 450 strata condominiums and 66 rental units. The project, as outlined on its website, also included provisions for 42,000 sq. ft of retail space, a 49-space childcare facility, and a brand-new public plaza, making it a significant addition to Vancouver’s skyline.
However, the grand vision has hit a roadblock, with the Bank of Montreal, a secured creditor of the project, submitting a receivership application citing an outstanding debt of $82.2 million in principal and interest. The legal ownership of the development site rests with Harlow Holdings Ltd., while the beneficial ownership falls under the Haro-Thurlow Street Project Limited Partnership (HTLP), which is itself owned by various entities, including 11044227 BC Ltd. (45%), Forseed Haro Holdings Ltd. (45%), and Terrapoint Developments Ltd. (10%). Interestingly, notable Vancouver-based developer Intracorp Homes is involved in the project as the development manager but is not directly implicated in the receivership proceedings.
The roots of the financial crisis lie in the developers’ struggle to meet the City of Vancouver’s stringent requirements for the project, an issue persisting for the past five years. A Council report from June 2022 highlighted concerns about the project’s encroachment on several view cones, prompting the ongoing review of the city’s view cones policies. Despite substantial efforts, the owners failed to secure a development permit, leading to a series of negotiations with creditors, primarily the Bank of Montreal.
The owners, facing mounting challenges, negotiated multiple amendments to their credit agreement, the latest of which occurred in September 2022. This extension pushed the “outside date” for the project to August 31, 2023. However, in early 2023, the Bank of Montreal informed the owners that no further extensions would be granted, compelling them to explore a potential sale of the property.
A significant development in this saga came when CBRE was engaged to facilitate the sale, leading to the reception of six offers by May 2023. These offers, ranging from $81.5 million to $100 million, fell substantially short of the property’s acquisition cost, leading to internal tensions among stakeholders. Notably, an offer by Chard Development for $93 million was not universally accepted, with Terrapoint supporting the offer, while Forseed and 11044227 BC Ltd. rejected it.
This internal discord, coupled with the owners’ resistance to accepting a considerable loss on their investments, led to an impasse. Terrapoint, a minority stakeholder, accused the majority partners of lacking “good faith” reasons for rejecting Chard Development’s offer. In response, the majority partners claimed they were actively seeking to refinance the debt, a claim met with skepticism due to the lack of supporting evidence.
The situation worsened when the owners defaulted on their interest payment in July 2023, prompting the Bank of Montreal to demand payment of $95,520,027.39 by August 29. Despite presenting a forbearance agreement, the owners declined to sign, leading to the initiation of the receivership application by the Bank of Montreal.
In a December affidavit, Kang Yu Canning Zou, a director of the entities under the receivership application, mentioned that the owners had identified three lenders willing to provide loans for debt repayment. However, the Bank of Montreal disputed this claim, stating that no evidence of such lenders had been provided.
The financial intricacies of the project involve a monthly interest cost of $620,000, while the existing rental complex on the site generates only $175,000 in monthly income. This considerable shortfall, combined with the owners’ failure to meet their obligations, eroded the Bank of Montreal’s confidence in their commitment to debt repayment.
In the receivership application, the Bank of Montreal sought the appointment of a receiver with the mandate to arrange a prompt sale of the property. An appraisal conducted by LW Property Advisors in July 2023 pegged the property’s value at $192 million, based on its development potential. However, concerns were raised about whether lenders would recognize this valuation.
Evan Allegretto, President of Intracorp Homes, expressed pessimism about the property’s current value, suggesting it might be even lower than the $93 million offer from Chard Development. Allegretto cited factors such as higher interest rates, tightening credit, rising construction costs, and the limited pool of potential purchasers for a property of this magnitude.
The owners, seeking more time to settle their debt, engaged in another dispute with the Bank of Montreal. The court ultimately ruled in favor of appointing Deloitte as the receiver as of January 12. However, Deloitte is restrained from undertaking any sales efforts until after February 23, and approval of sale offers is prohibited until after April 26.
If a sales process is initiated, the receiver is likely to collaborate with a commercial real estate brokerage for listing and marketing the property. The subsequent offers would be scrutinized, and the selected offer would require final approval from the court, adding an additional layer of complexity to the resolution of this intricate financial and legal quagmire.
In December 2023, the Metro Vancouver residential real estate market demonstrated mixed signals, with total residential sales reaching 1,345, marking a modest 3.2% increase from the same month in 2022. However, this uptick in sales was notably below the 10-year seasonal average by a substantial 36.4%, reflecting a market that, while showing signs of recovery, still faced challenges.
New property listings, encompassing detached, attached, and apartment properties, reached 1,327 in December 2023. This represented a notable 9.9% increase compared to the listings in December 2022. Despite this increase, the figure remained 22.7% below the 10-year seasonal average of 1,716. This discrepancy between sales and new listings suggested a market with a persisting supply-demand imbalance.
Analyzing the sales-to-active listings ratio for December 2023 revealed a broader perspective on market dynamics. The overall ratio stood at 16%, indicating a delicate equilibrium between supply and demand. However, when broken down by property type, the ratios varied — 11.1% for detached homes, 18.7% for attached properties, and 19.6% for apartments. According to historical data analysis, sustained ratios below 12% typically exert downward pressure on home prices, while ratios exceeding 20% over several months often lead to upward price pressure.
Detached home sales in December 2023 reached 376, representing a modest 1.3% increase from December 2022. The benchmark price for a detached home was $1,964,400, reflecting a 7.7% increase from the previous year. However, compared to November 2023, there was a slight 0.9% decrease in the benchmark price, suggesting a nuanced pricing trend.
Sales of apartment homes in December 2023 reached 719, a 2.4% increase compared to December 2022. The benchmark price for an apartment home was $751,300, indicating a 5.6% increase from the previous year. However, there was a 1.5% decrease in the benchmark price compared to November 2023, highlighting potential month-to-month volatility.
Attached home sales in December 2023 totaled 238, marking a more substantial 7.2% increase compared to December 2022. The benchmark price for a townhouse was $1,072,700, representing a 6.4% increase from the previous year. The performance of attached homes hinted at a segment of the market that was experiencing relative strength.
The data painted a nuanced picture of the Metro Vancouver real estate market at the close of 2023. While there was a year-over-year increase in residential sales, the figures remained notably below the 10-year seasonal averages, indicating persistent challenges. The sales-to-active listings ratio provided insights into the delicate balance between supply and demand, with potential implications for future price trends.
In conclusion, the market dynamics in Metro Vancouver at the end of 2023 reflected a landscape in transition. A careful analysis of sales, new listings, and price benchmarks highlighted both positive and challenging aspects, underscoring the complexity of the real estate ecosystem in the region.
The City of Vancouver and the Canadian federal government have reached a housing deal through the Housing Accelerator Fund, aiming to construct over 40,000 homes in Vancouver within the next decade. The agreement, announced during a press conference with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, outlines plans to fast-track approximately 3,200 homes over the next three years. Trudeau emphasized the federal government’s commitment to partnering with various levels of government to expedite home construction. Housing Minister Sean Fraser stated that nearly $115 million from the Housing Accelerator Fund would be allocated to reduce barriers to housing development.
The deal aims to promote high-density housing, expedite development processes, and increase housing proximity to transit. Vancouver plans to streamline rezoning, expand affordable rental programs, and implement initiatives to enhance housing construction. Mayor Ken Sim expressed enthusiasm for the announcement, characterizing it as a collective commitment to address the housing shortage. Sim highlighted the positive impact on neighborhood vibrancy and opportunities resulting from increased housing construction.
Sim acknowledged the rapid population growth expected in the Greater Vancouver region, estimating an influx of 500,000 people by 2050. To address this growth, he emphasized the need for swift and bold action. The federal government’s $115 million investment through the Housing Accelerator Fund was deemed generous and essential to accelerating home construction. However, the announcement faced criticism from the federal Conservatives, who pointed to recent data from the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation revealing a more than 20% drop in housing starts across the country in November compared to the previous month.
As of December 4, 2023, Metro Vancouver is experiencing a notable surge in housing inventory, providing home buyers with the most extensive selection since 2021. The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports a 4.7% increase in residential sales for November 2023 compared to the same period in 2022, totaling 1,702 sales. While this represents a 33% decline from the 10-year seasonal average, the increase in active listings is contributing to more balanced market conditions.
Andrew Lis, REBGV’s director of economics and data analytics, notes that the growing number of active listings over recent months, coupled with the typical seasonal sales slowdown, is creating a more favorable environment for buyers. In November 2023, 3,369 properties were newly listed for sale, reflecting a 9.8% increase from the previous year.
The total number of properties listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) system in Metro Vancouver has reached 10,931, marking a 13.5% increase compared to November 2022. This is 3.7% above the 10-year seasonal average. The sales-to-active listings ratio for November 2023 is 16.3%, with variations by property type: 12.7% for detached homes, 19.8% for attached, and 18.2% for apartments.
Historical data analysis indicates that home prices may experience downward pressure when the sales-to-active listings ratio falls below 12% for an extended period. Conversely, sustained ratios exceeding 20% often lead to upward pressure on home prices.
Lis points out that the current market conditions, characterized by balanced supply and demand, are contributing to flatter price trends. Following a period of over 7% price increase earlier in the year, prices have seen a slight decrease since the summer. While Cyber Monday discounts may not be prevalent, prices have edged lower by a few percentage points. Moreover, with economists predicting a modest decline in mortgage rates in 2024, market conditions are considered highly favorable for buyers.
The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is $1,185,100, reflecting a 4.9% increase over November 2022. However, there is a 1% decrease compared to October 2023.
Breaking down property types, detached home sales in November 2023 increased by 7%, reaching 523 sales. The benchmark price for a detached home is $1,982,600, representing a 6.8% increase from November 2022 but a 0.9% decrease compared to October 2023.
Apartment home sales reached 850 in November 2023, showing a marginal 0.4% increase from November 2022. The benchmark price for an apartment home is $762,700, indicating a 6.2% increase from November 2022 but a 1% decrease compared to October 2023.
Sales of attached homes totaled 316 in November 2023, marking a substantial 12.5% increase compared to November 2022. The benchmark price for a townhouse is $1,092,600, showing a 6.9% increase from November 2022 but a 0.7% decrease compared to October 2023.
In summary, Metro Vancouver’s housing market is currently characterized by increased inventory, balanced conditions, and a slight decline in prices since the summer. With favorable market conditions for buyers and anticipated declines in mortgage rates, the real estate landscape in the region appears to be offering a unique opportunity for those in the market for a new home.
The Metro Vancouver housing market remained steady in October 2023, as indicated by an increase in newly listed properties providing more options for homebuyers. However, despite this rise in listings, sales figures continued to lag behind long-term averages, reflecting a somewhat subdued demand. The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reported 1,996 residential sales for the month, marking a 3.7 percent increase from October 2022, yet still 29.5 percent below the 10-year seasonal average.
The surge in newly listed properties, which was about 15.4 percent higher compared to the previous year, contributed to a total of 11,599 properties currently listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) system, representing a 12.6 percent increase from October 2022. Despite this rise, the sales-to-active listings ratio stood at 17.9 percent across all property types. By property type, the ratio was 12.9 percent for detached homes, 20.9 percent for attached homes, and 21.5 percent for apartments.
Market analysis indicated that the overall shift towards more balanced conditions was particularly noticeable in the multifamily segment, which remained more active than the detached segment. The real estate market experienced a relative balance between supply and demand, which restrained significant price fluctuations. While borrowing costs remained high, housing affordability was somewhat alleviated by the stabilization of prices, thus maintaining the purchasing power of buyers in the market.
The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver was $1,196,500, marking a 4.4 percent increase from October 2022. However, there was a slight 0.6 percent decrease compared to September 2023. Detached homes recorded 577 sales in October 2023, with a benchmark price of $2,001,400, representing a 5.8 percent increase from the previous year but a 0.8 percent decrease compared to the previous month.
Apartment home sales saw a rise of 4.9 percent, reaching 1,044 in October 2023, with the benchmark price for an apartment home at $770,200, reflecting a 6.4 percent increase from the previous year and a 0.2 percent increase from the previous month. Attached home sales totaled 356, showing a 6.6 percent increase from October 2022, with the benchmark price for a townhouse at $1,100,500, indicating a 6 percent increase from the previous year and a 0.2 percent increase from the previous month.
Overall, the market’s balanced conditions, driven by increased inventory and moderate demand, resulted in a relatively stable housing market in Metro Vancouver. Despite persistent challenges related to borrowing costs and affordability, the market remained resilient, offering some relief to prospective buyers with stabilized prices.
