First time buyers

In this article I’m going to have a detailed breakdown of the Vancouver housing market for November 2016. Both Vancouver East and Vancouver West housing markets will be looked at. We will analyze single-family detached houses, resale houses only (brand new construction is will not be included).

Each graph goes back 3 years, from January 2013 to November 2016.

Find Vancouver houses for sale here.

• Also see: “First time buyers’ breakdown of downtown Vancouver condo market – December 2016“

Let’s start with an Average Sale Price of a detached houses in Vancouver in November 2016 and for the past 3 years (see graph below)

Vancouver East: $1,436,564 | +4.5% (change since November 2015)

Vancouver West: $3,827,771 | +8.0% (change since November 2015)

We can see a clear selling price drop since the record high selling prices in Spring and Summer of 2016. Part of the reason is the newly introduced “foreign investor tax” and part of the reason is a natural decline of the market (as we will see in the later graphs).

 

Next, let’s take a look at the Average Percent of Original Asking Price sellers got for their detached houses in November 2016 and for the past 3 years (see graph below)

Vancouver East: 94.1% | -9.5% (change since November 2015)

Vancouver West: 92.7% | -7.2% (change since November 2015)

We see a decline in the average precent of original price since November 2015. If we compare November 2016 to Spring and Summer 2016 there is a huge difference in the average percentage of original asking price. In April 2016 home sellers were getting 5-8% over their original asking price.

 

Now, let’s take a look at Average Number of Days It Takes to Sell a House in Vancouver in November 2016 and for the past 3 years (see graph below)

Vancouver East: 36 | +28.6% (change since November 2015)

Vancouver West: 48 | +2.1% (change since November 2015)

We can see that the average number of days a homes sits on the market went up since November 2015. However, that average is still very reasonable and well within the 10 year average. Right homes are selling relatively quickly.

 

Next, let’s take a look at the Total Number of Houses for Sale in Vancouver in November 2016 and for the past 3 years (see graph below)

Vancouver East: 701 | +100.3% (change since November 2015)

Vancouver West: 548 | +3.6% (change since November 2015)

East Vancouver has huge increase of total inventory on the market as compared to November 2015. In fact East Vancouver has unusually high number of available houses for sale compared to any month of any season including busy seasons in the Vancouver real estate market.

If the demented doesn’t meet the available inventory, which it doesn’t as we will see in graphs below than we can expect the prices to dip as they have, which we see in the graph above.

Next, let’s take a look at the Total Number of New Listings of Houses for Sale in Vancouver in November 2016 and the last 3 years (see graph below)

Vancouver East: 198 | +35.6% (change since November 2015)

Vancouver West: 111 | -29.3% (change since November 2015)

Again, not the best news for the sellers in East Vancouver as the number of new listings has increased substantially as compared to November 2015. It is very likely that without enough buyers for all of the new listings on the market in East Vancouver, prices will be coming down even more.

 

Now, lets take a look at the Total Number of Houses Sold in Vancouver in November 2016 and for the last 3 years (see graph below)

Vancouver East: 77 | -43.4% (change since November 2015)

Vancouver West: 65 | -55.8% (change since November 2015)

The number of sales for both Vancouver East and Vancouver West is about half of what they were in November last year.

What’s interesting is that Vancouver housing sales numbers were dropping 2 months before “foreign buyers tax”. The tax added breaks to already slowing down market.

 

Lastly, lets take a look at the Sales to Active Listings Ratio in November 2016 and for the last 3 years (see graph below)

Vancouver East: 0.110 | -71.7% (change since November 2015)

Vancouver West: 0.119 | -57.2% (change since November 2015)

Both Vancouver East and Vancouver West real estate housing markets are “buyers” markets. We see a shift from the first half of 2016 when the housing market was a strong “sellers” market. The transition into “buyers” market happened around July/August of 2016.

With the increase of inventory, a flood of new listings and low sales figures things are looking a bit grim for the near future of Vancouver housing market.

I hope you found this article helpful. If so, please, share it with someone who’s looking for a house in Vancouver or someone who owns a Vancouver home and would appreciate the extra information.

* All graphs and statistics are taken from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. 

Here is a detailed breakdown of Downtown Vancouver condo market. Although, it’s not exclusive to the first time buyers, in my opinion first time condo buyers would gain the most from this breakdown, as they are the ones who most often purchase 1 bedroom units.

The information below strictly applies to 1 bedroom and studio condos  (no townhouses). I will analyze four of the Downtown Vancouver neighbourhoods: Coal Harbour, Downtown VW, Yaletown and West End. We will only look at resale units only; brand new units bought directly from the developer are excluded.

• Also see: “Vancouver housing market update – December 2016“

All of the statistics and graphs are from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. I have filtered out brand new development units, townhouses, and 2+ bedroom units. This way you will get bare-bones most accurate representation of the 1 bedroom (and studio) condo market in downtown Vancouver for November 2016 and for the past 3 years.

Find Downtown condos for sale here.

Fist, let’s look at the Average Sale Price of 1 Bedroom Condos in Downtown Vancouver (see graph below)

Coal Harbour: $604,250 | +8.8% (change since November 2015)

Downtown VW: $545,544 | +17.7% (change since November 2015)

Yaletown: $681,091 | +27.6% (change since November 2015)

West End: 487,740 | +17.1% (change since November 2015)

As you can see the prices have really gone up in neighbourhoods like Downtown VW and Yaletown in the last year. There is a huge difference in prices in all four neighbourhoods over the last three years.

West End and Coal Harbour neighbourhoods seem to be going up and down a lot more. That’s because there are fewer units selling in these neighbourhoods and the units that are selling are very diverse. You have buildings that are 40 years old and you have buildings that are 2 years old. So prices (on paper) jump up and down quite a bit. At the end of the days prices are gradually climbing up.

 

Next, let’s talk about the Percentage of the Listing Price Sellers are Getting for Their Condos (see graph below)

Coal Harbour: 96.8% | -6.1% (change since November 2015)

Downtown VW: 99.8% | -0.5% (change since November 2015)

Yaletown: 97.6% | -2.6% (change since November 2015)

West End: 101.0% | +3.4% (change since November 2015)

Units in the Downtown Vancouver are usually selling very close to the asking price. There is no surprise here. West End condos on average are still selling for over the asking price.

If you look at Spring and Summer 2016 you can really see how “hot” the market really was and how most condos were selling 5-8% over the asking price.

 

Here is a look at How Quickly the Condos are Selling (see graph below)

Coal Harbour: 33 | +120.0% (change since November 2015)

Downtown VW: 17 | -26.1% (change since November 2015)

Yaletown: 27 | +80.0% (change since November 2015)

West End: 16 | -33.3% (change since November 2015)

1 bedroom condos in Downtown Vancouver have always been selling relatively quickly. We can see some slow-down in Yaletown and Coal Harbour neighbourhoods as compared to November 2015. However, this time last year the market was quite “hot” in these neighbourhoods. “Business as usual” in the all four neighbourhoods.

 

Price per Square Foot is next (see graph below) 

Coal Harbour: $960 | +12.3% (change since November 2015)

Downtown VW: $907 | +24.1% (change since November 2015)

Yaletown: $986 | +31.5% (change since November 2015)

West End: $829 | +25.8% (change since November 2015)

All four neighbourhoods are up quite a bit from the previous year. Yaletown and Coal Harbour being the most expensive neighbourhoods in terms of price per square foot. Once again, we can see steady increase in price over the last 3 years.

 

Let’s take a look at a Total Number of 1 Bedroom Condos Available for Sale in Downtown Vancouver in November 2016 and for the past 3 years (see graph below) 

Coal Harbour: 19 | 0.0% (change since November 2015)

Downtown VW: 86 | +65.4% (change since November 2015)

Yaletown: 35 | +40.0% (change since November 2015)

West End: 45 | +2.3% (change since November 2015)

Not much change in Coal Harbour and West End neighbourhoods as compared to November 2016. However, there are substantially more condos on the market in Downtown VW and Yaletown.

 

Here are the Numbers of New Listings in November 2016 and for the past 3 years (see graph below)

Coal Harbour: 6 | -40.0% (change since November 2015)

Downtown VW: 51 | +30.8% (change since November 2015)

Yaletown: 29 | +38.1% (change since November 2015)

West End: 29 | 0.0% (change since November 2015)

We see an increase in the number of new listings in Downtown VW and Yaletown, which could potentially lead to prices flatlining if the demand is not met.

 

Here is a look at the Total Number of 1 Bedroom Condos Sold in Downtown Vancouver in November 2016 and the past 3 years (see graph below)

Coal Harbour: 4 | -33.3% (change since November 2015)

Downtown VW: 42 | -39.1% (change since November 2015)

Yaletown: 22 | -8.3% (change since November 2015)

West End: 20 | -35.5% (change since November 2015)

Sales are down across the board in all four of the Downtown neighbourhoods as compared to November 2015.

It is also clear the the sales are down as compared to the Spring 2016 and Summer 2016. However, looking back over the past 3 years sales usually dip in November and December.

 

Lastly, let’s take a look at the Sales vs Active Listings Ratio (see graph below)

Coal Harbour: 0.211 | -33.2% (change since November 2015)

Downtown VW: 0.488 | -63.2% (change since November 2015)

Yaletown: 0.629 | -34.5% (change since November 2015)

West End: 0.444 | -37.0% (change since November 2015)

Even though all four neighbourhoods are experimenting a slow-down as compared to November 2015. Downtown VW, Yaletown and West End are still “seller” markets with Coal Harbour being a “balanced” market.

I’d like to point out crazy “hot” seller market that we experienced Spring and Summer of 2016. In March 2016 Yaletown had 2.10 sales to active listings ratio. Which means 21 out of 10 condos were selling. In other words inventory from previous months as well as new inventory was selling like hot pancakes.

I hope you found this article helpful. If so, please, share it with someone who’s looking for a downtown condo or someone who owns a downtown condo and would appreciate the extra info.