Royal LePage’s latest market forecast paints a vivid picture of Canada’s real estate landscape, predicting a significant 9% year-over-year increase in home prices by the fourth quarter of 2024. This upward revision stems from a robust first quarter, with strong price appreciation expected through the second and third quarters before tapering off towards year-end, aligning with seasonal trends.
The forecast highlights notable upgrades in major markets, particularly the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), where prices are anticipated to surge by 10%, surpassing the national average. Montreal follows closely behind with an 8.5% projected increase, while Calgary, Quebec City, and Greater Vancouver are forecasted to experience respective jumps of 8%, 8%, and 5.5%.
Royal LePage President Phil Soper attributes the current modest price rises to consumers, particularly first-time buyers, adapting to higher borrowing costs. However, he anticipates a steeper appreciation curve once the central bank enacts anticipated rate cuts, drawing in rate-focused buyers.
While easing rates will influence price upticks, the fundamental driver remains the severe housing shortage across the country. Soper warns of an intensifying seller’s market, foretelling a busy spring and fall for Canadian buyers and sellers alike.
Looking ahead, Royal LePage’s forecast suggests that by the end of 2026, the majority of mortgages will have transitioned into an elevated borrowing rate environment. Yet, this is not expected to significantly dampen the housing market’s resilience. Soper points to Canadians meeting their mortgage obligations amid record-low default rates and income growth offsetting increased mortgage costs. However, he anticipates a pullback in discretionary spending as individuals prioritize maintaining homeownership.
In summary, Royal LePage’s forecast outlines a dynamic Canadian housing market characterized by soaring prices, driven by a combination of factors including adapting consumer behavior, impending rate cuts, and the persistent housing shortage. Despite looming challenges, the market remains robust, with buyers and sellers navigating towards a seller-centric environment amidst projections of continued price appreciation.
Spring breathes new life into Metro Vancouver’s real estate scene, ushering in a wave of activity from sellers and expanding options for buyers. The latest report from Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR) reveals a significant surge in MLS® listings, with a remarkable uptick of nearly 23 percent compared to the previous year.
March 2024 witnessed 2,415 residential sales in the region, marking a slight dip of 4.7 percent from the same period in 2023. Despite this minor decline, the market maintains its vigor, fueled by demand for competitively priced properties in strategic locales, shifting the balance further into sellers’ favor.
Across detached, attached, and apartment segments, new listings on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) soared by 15.9 percent compared to March 2023, reaching a total of 5,002. Presently, the MLS® system boasts 10,552 properties for sale, indicating a substantial 22.5 percent increase from March 2023.
Analysis of the sales-to-active listings ratio for March 2024 reveals a robust figure of 23.8 percent across all property types. Specifically, the ratio stands at 18.2 percent for detached homes, 31.3 percent for attached homes, and 25.8 percent for apartments. These figures underscore the pressure on home prices, with ratios below 12 percent suggesting downward trends and those surpassing 20 percent indicating upward momentum.
Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics, acknowledges the market’s relative cooling compared to the previous year but notes modest month-over-month price gains, ranging from one to two percent on aggregate. While Lis anticipates potential cuts to the Bank of Canada’s policy rate in 2024, he warns that these measures may not significantly ease affordability challenges, given the enduring constraints on borrowing power.
The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver presently stands at $1,196,800, reflecting a 4.5 percent year-over-year increase.
Breaking down the sales data, detached home sales reached 694 in March 2024, down by 5.4 percent compared to March 2023. The benchmark price for detached homes stands at $2,007,900, up by 7.4 percent from March 2023.
Apartment home sales totaled 1,207 in March 2024, marking a 7.9 percent decrease from March 2023. The benchmark price for apartments is $777,500, showing a 5.7 percent year-over-year increase.
Attached home sales witnessed a modest increase of 6.2 percent in March 2024 compared to March 2023, totaling 495 sales. The benchmark price for townhouses rose to $1,112,800, reflecting a 5 percent increase from March 2023.
In summary, while Metro Vancouver’s real estate market experiences heightened seller activity, buyers should anticipate stiff competition, particularly for attractively priced properties in sought-after locations.
In February 2024, Metro Vancouver’s housing market saw a notable increase in new listings, alleviating concerns about potential overheating. According to Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR), new listings rose by 31% year-over-year, reaching 4,560 properties listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®). This surge in listings provided buyers with more choices as the spring and summer markets approached.
Residential sales in the region totaled 2,070 in February 2024, marking a 13.5% increase from the previous year. However, this figure was 23.3% below the 10-year seasonal average, highlighting a slower pace compared to historical trends. GVR’s director of economics and data analytics, Andrew Lis, expressed relief at the increase in new listings, stating that it would ease the pressure that had built up in January.
Despite the rise in listings, the total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver increased by 16.3% compared to February 2023, totaling 9,634 properties. This was 3% above the 10-year seasonal average. The sales-to-active listings ratio for February 2024 stood at 22.4%, with varying ratios for detached homes (16%), attached homes (27.9%), and apartments (25.9%).
Lis noted that the increase in new listings did not sufficiently counterbalance the pace of sales to prevent price acceleration. Consequently, the market remained in sellers’ territory, contributing to modest price growth across all segments. However, benchmark prices were still below the peak observed in the spring of 2022, before the full impact of the Bank of Canada’s tightening cycle was internalized.
The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver reached $1,183,300, reflecting a 4.5% increase from February 2023. While there was modest price growth across all property types, benchmark prices remained below the 2022 peak.
Detached home sales increased by 8.3%, reaching 560 in February 2024, with a benchmark price of $1,972,400. Apartment home sales saw a 17.7% increase, totaling 1,092, with a benchmark price of $770,700. Attached home sales reached 403, marking a 10.1% increase, with a townhouse benchmark price of $1,094,700. Overall, the market demonstrated resilience, showing both increased supply and demand, with moderate price growth in February 2024.
In December 2023, the Metro Vancouver residential real estate market demonstrated mixed signals, with total residential sales reaching 1,345, marking a modest 3.2% increase from the same month in 2022. However, this uptick in sales was notably below the 10-year seasonal average by a substantial 36.4%, reflecting a market that, while showing signs of recovery, still faced challenges.
New property listings, encompassing detached, attached, and apartment properties, reached 1,327 in December 2023. This represented a notable 9.9% increase compared to the listings in December 2022. Despite this increase, the figure remained 22.7% below the 10-year seasonal average of 1,716. This discrepancy between sales and new listings suggested a market with a persisting supply-demand imbalance.
Analyzing the sales-to-active listings ratio for December 2023 revealed a broader perspective on market dynamics. The overall ratio stood at 16%, indicating a delicate equilibrium between supply and demand. However, when broken down by property type, the ratios varied — 11.1% for detached homes, 18.7% for attached properties, and 19.6% for apartments. According to historical data analysis, sustained ratios below 12% typically exert downward pressure on home prices, while ratios exceeding 20% over several months often lead to upward price pressure.
Detached home sales in December 2023 reached 376, representing a modest 1.3% increase from December 2022. The benchmark price for a detached home was $1,964,400, reflecting a 7.7% increase from the previous year. However, compared to November 2023, there was a slight 0.9% decrease in the benchmark price, suggesting a nuanced pricing trend.
Sales of apartment homes in December 2023 reached 719, a 2.4% increase compared to December 2022. The benchmark price for an apartment home was $751,300, indicating a 5.6% increase from the previous year. However, there was a 1.5% decrease in the benchmark price compared to November 2023, highlighting potential month-to-month volatility.
Attached home sales in December 2023 totaled 238, marking a more substantial 7.2% increase compared to December 2022. The benchmark price for a townhouse was $1,072,700, representing a 6.4% increase from the previous year. The performance of attached homes hinted at a segment of the market that was experiencing relative strength.
The data painted a nuanced picture of the Metro Vancouver real estate market at the close of 2023. While there was a year-over-year increase in residential sales, the figures remained notably below the 10-year seasonal averages, indicating persistent challenges. The sales-to-active listings ratio provided insights into the delicate balance between supply and demand, with potential implications for future price trends.
In conclusion, the market dynamics in Metro Vancouver at the end of 2023 reflected a landscape in transition. A careful analysis of sales, new listings, and price benchmarks highlighted both positive and challenging aspects, underscoring the complexity of the real estate ecosystem in the region.
The City of Vancouver and the Canadian federal government have reached a housing deal through the Housing Accelerator Fund, aiming to construct over 40,000 homes in Vancouver within the next decade. The agreement, announced during a press conference with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, outlines plans to fast-track approximately 3,200 homes over the next three years. Trudeau emphasized the federal government’s commitment to partnering with various levels of government to expedite home construction. Housing Minister Sean Fraser stated that nearly $115 million from the Housing Accelerator Fund would be allocated to reduce barriers to housing development.
The deal aims to promote high-density housing, expedite development processes, and increase housing proximity to transit. Vancouver plans to streamline rezoning, expand affordable rental programs, and implement initiatives to enhance housing construction. Mayor Ken Sim expressed enthusiasm for the announcement, characterizing it as a collective commitment to address the housing shortage. Sim highlighted the positive impact on neighborhood vibrancy and opportunities resulting from increased housing construction.
Sim acknowledged the rapid population growth expected in the Greater Vancouver region, estimating an influx of 500,000 people by 2050. To address this growth, he emphasized the need for swift and bold action. The federal government’s $115 million investment through the Housing Accelerator Fund was deemed generous and essential to accelerating home construction. However, the announcement faced criticism from the federal Conservatives, who pointed to recent data from the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation revealing a more than 20% drop in housing starts across the country in November compared to the previous month.
As of December 4, 2023, Metro Vancouver is experiencing a notable surge in housing inventory, providing home buyers with the most extensive selection since 2021. The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports a 4.7% increase in residential sales for November 2023 compared to the same period in 2022, totaling 1,702 sales. While this represents a 33% decline from the 10-year seasonal average, the increase in active listings is contributing to more balanced market conditions.
Andrew Lis, REBGV’s director of economics and data analytics, notes that the growing number of active listings over recent months, coupled with the typical seasonal sales slowdown, is creating a more favorable environment for buyers. In November 2023, 3,369 properties were newly listed for sale, reflecting a 9.8% increase from the previous year.
The total number of properties listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) system in Metro Vancouver has reached 10,931, marking a 13.5% increase compared to November 2022. This is 3.7% above the 10-year seasonal average. The sales-to-active listings ratio for November 2023 is 16.3%, with variations by property type: 12.7% for detached homes, 19.8% for attached, and 18.2% for apartments.
Historical data analysis indicates that home prices may experience downward pressure when the sales-to-active listings ratio falls below 12% for an extended period. Conversely, sustained ratios exceeding 20% often lead to upward pressure on home prices.
Lis points out that the current market conditions, characterized by balanced supply and demand, are contributing to flatter price trends. Following a period of over 7% price increase earlier in the year, prices have seen a slight decrease since the summer. While Cyber Monday discounts may not be prevalent, prices have edged lower by a few percentage points. Moreover, with economists predicting a modest decline in mortgage rates in 2024, market conditions are considered highly favorable for buyers.
The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is $1,185,100, reflecting a 4.9% increase over November 2022. However, there is a 1% decrease compared to October 2023.
Breaking down property types, detached home sales in November 2023 increased by 7%, reaching 523 sales. The benchmark price for a detached home is $1,982,600, representing a 6.8% increase from November 2022 but a 0.9% decrease compared to October 2023.
Apartment home sales reached 850 in November 2023, showing a marginal 0.4% increase from November 2022. The benchmark price for an apartment home is $762,700, indicating a 6.2% increase from November 2022 but a 1% decrease compared to October 2023.
Sales of attached homes totaled 316 in November 2023, marking a substantial 12.5% increase compared to November 2022. The benchmark price for a townhouse is $1,092,600, showing a 6.9% increase from November 2022 but a 0.7% decrease compared to October 2023.
In summary, Metro Vancouver’s housing market is currently characterized by increased inventory, balanced conditions, and a slight decline in prices since the summer. With favorable market conditions for buyers and anticipated declines in mortgage rates, the real estate landscape in the region appears to be offering a unique opportunity for those in the market for a new home.
The Metro Vancouver housing market remained steady in October 2023, as indicated by an increase in newly listed properties providing more options for homebuyers. However, despite this rise in listings, sales figures continued to lag behind long-term averages, reflecting a somewhat subdued demand. The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reported 1,996 residential sales for the month, marking a 3.7 percent increase from October 2022, yet still 29.5 percent below the 10-year seasonal average.
The surge in newly listed properties, which was about 15.4 percent higher compared to the previous year, contributed to a total of 11,599 properties currently listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) system, representing a 12.6 percent increase from October 2022. Despite this rise, the sales-to-active listings ratio stood at 17.9 percent across all property types. By property type, the ratio was 12.9 percent for detached homes, 20.9 percent for attached homes, and 21.5 percent for apartments.
Market analysis indicated that the overall shift towards more balanced conditions was particularly noticeable in the multifamily segment, which remained more active than the detached segment. The real estate market experienced a relative balance between supply and demand, which restrained significant price fluctuations. While borrowing costs remained high, housing affordability was somewhat alleviated by the stabilization of prices, thus maintaining the purchasing power of buyers in the market.
The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver was $1,196,500, marking a 4.4 percent increase from October 2022. However, there was a slight 0.6 percent decrease compared to September 2023. Detached homes recorded 577 sales in October 2023, with a benchmark price of $2,001,400, representing a 5.8 percent increase from the previous year but a 0.8 percent decrease compared to the previous month.
Apartment home sales saw a rise of 4.9 percent, reaching 1,044 in October 2023, with the benchmark price for an apartment home at $770,200, reflecting a 6.4 percent increase from the previous year and a 0.2 percent increase from the previous month. Attached home sales totaled 356, showing a 6.6 percent increase from October 2022, with the benchmark price for a townhouse at $1,100,500, indicating a 6 percent increase from the previous year and a 0.2 percent increase from the previous month.
Overall, the market’s balanced conditions, driven by increased inventory and moderate demand, resulted in a relatively stable housing market in Metro Vancouver. Despite persistent challenges related to borrowing costs and affordability, the market remained resilient, offering some relief to prospective buyers with stabilized prices.
In the dynamic real estate landscape of Metro Vancouver, the month of July 2023 witnessed yet another upswing in home prices across all types of properties, fuelled by a robust sales surge. This ongoing trend of price escalation is being driven by a formidable combination of vigorous sales figures and a persistently low housing inventory within the region.
According to the latest data from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV), the total number of residential home sales in the area reached an impressive 2,455 in July 2023. This marked a substantial increase of 28.9 percent compared to the 1,904 sales recorded during the same period in 2022. It’s noteworthy that these figures remained about 15.6 percent below the ten-year seasonal average of 2,909 sales.
Andrew Lis, the director of economics and data analytics at REBGV, emphasized the significance of the year-over-year sales increase, even if it still lags behind the ten-year average. He explained that this substantial improvement is partly attributed to the market’s response to the previous year’s scenario when the Bank of Canada took many by surprise with a sizeable one percent increase in the policy rate. This move had momentarily chilled the market activity by catching both buyers and sellers off guard.
The supply side of the equation also saw notable developments. In July 2023, there were 4,649 detached, attached, and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver. This figure marked a significant 17 percent increase compared to the 3,975 homes listed in July 2022, although it still remained 5.2 percent below the 10-year seasonal average of 4,902 listings.
Presently, the total number of homes listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver stands at 10,301, reflecting a four percent decrease when contrasted with the figures from July 2022 (10,734). Moreover, this number was about 14.4 percent lower than the ten-year seasonal average of 12,039 listings.
An insightful metric for evaluating the balance between supply and demand is the sales-to-active listings ratio. For July 2023, this ratio stood at 24.9 percent when considering all property types combined. However, when analyzed by property type, the ratios were 16.5 percent for detached homes, 32 percent for townhomes, and 30.6 percent for apartments. Historical analysis suggests that home prices typically experience downward pressure when the ratio remains below 12 percent consistently. Conversely, when the ratio surpasses 20 percent over several months, it tends to exert upward pressure on home prices.
One intriguing aspect of the current market environment is the contrast between the Bank of Canada’s modest rate hike of a quarter of a percent in July and the highest mortgage rates witnessed in Canada in over a decade. Despite this, sales activity managed to outpace last year’s levels, indicating not only the robust demand in the market but also buyers’ ability to adapt and qualify for higher borrowing costs.
In terms of specific property types, the MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver reached $1,210,700. This signifies a marginal 0.5 percent increase over July 2022 and a similarly modest 0.6 percent increase when compared to June 2023.
Delving deeper, the sales of detached homes in July 2023 numbered 681, an impressive 28.7 percent upswing from the 529 detached sales recorded in July 2022. The benchmark price for a detached home reached $2,012,900, reflecting a 0.6 percent increase from the previous year and a 1.1 percent rise compared to June 2023.
Similarly, apartment home sales witnessed a significant surge, totaling 1,281 in July 2023. This marked a substantial 20.7 percent increase when compared to the 1,061 sales of July 2022. The benchmark price for an apartment home climbed to $771,600, demonstrating a noteworthy 2.6 percent increase from the previous year and a 0.6 percent uptick from June 2023.
Attached homes, too, experienced a notable upswing in sales, with July 2023 witnessing 466 sales compared to 304 in July 2022. This surge of 53.3 percent is substantial and contributed to the benchmark price for an attached home reaching $1,104,600. This marks a 1.2 percent increase from July 2022 and a 0.5 percent rise compared to June 2023.
All in all, the real estate landscape in Metro Vancouver continues to be shaped by a dynamic interplay of strong sales activity, constrained inventory levels, and the ability of buyers to adapt to changing market conditions, including higher borrowing costs. While the ten-year average remains a reference point, the current market’s resilience underscores the enduring demand for housing in the region, driving incremental increases in property prices across various segments.
Metro Vancouver’s housing market is witnessing a continued surge in home prices as the summer season commences. The limited availability of homes for sale in the region is causing a clash with the high demand from prospective buyers, leading to further price hikes.
According to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV), residential home sales in June 2023 reached 2,988, indicating a significant 21.1 percent increase compared to June 2022’s 2,467 sales. However, despite this growth, the figure fell short by 8.6 percent of the ten-year seasonal average of 3,269.
Andrew Lis, the director of economics and data analytics at REBGV, noted that the market has exceeded expectations in all segments, with apartments exhibiting the strongest performance in June. Lis stated that the benchmark price of apartment homes is nearly reaching the peak recorded in 2022, and apartment sales have surpassed the region’s ten-year seasonal average. In contrast, sales of attached and detached homes remained below the seasonal averages.
In June 2023, there were 5,348 newly listed detached, attached, and apartment properties for sale in Metro Vancouver, reflecting a slight 1.3 percent increase compared to June 2022’s 5,278 listings. However, this number fell 3.1 percent short of the ten-year seasonal average of 5,518.
Currently, there are 9,990 homes listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) system in Metro Vancouver, indicating a 7.9 percent decrease compared to June 2022’s 10,842 listings. This figure is 17.4 percent lower than the ten-year seasonal average of 12,091.
The sales-to-active listings ratio for June 2023 stands at 31.4 percent for all property types, while the ratio is 20.9 percent for detached homes, 38.5 percent for townhomes, and 39.4 percent for apartments. Historical data suggests that when the ratio remains below 12 percent for a sustained period, home prices tend to experience downward pressure, while a ratio surpassing 20 percent for several months often leads to upward pressure on prices.
Andrew Lis highlighted that despite higher borrowing costs, the lack of resale inventory relative to the pool of buyers in Metro Vancouver continues to drive prices up across all segments. Lis called upon the provincial government to adjust the Property Transfer Tax’s threshold, which exempts first-time home buyers, to better align with the price of entry-level homes in the region. Such a policy adjustment could enable more first-time buyers to afford a home.
The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver currently stands at $1,203,000. This represents a 2.4 percent decrease from June 2022 but a 1.3 percent increase compared to May 2023.
Sales of detached homes in June 2023 amounted to 848, reflecting a substantial 28.3 percent increase compared to the 661 sales recorded in June 2022. The benchmark price for a detached home is $1,991,300, representing a 3.2 percent decrease from June 2022 but a 1.9 percent increase compared to May 2023.
Apartment home sales reached 1,573 in June 2023, marking an 18.6 percent increase compared to the 1,326 sales in June 2022. The benchmark price for an apartment home is $767,000, indicating a 0.5 percent increase from June 2022 and a 0.8 percent increase compared to May 2023.
Sales of attached homes in June 2023 totaled 547, signifying a 17.6 percent increase compared to the 465 sales in June 2022. The benchmark price of an attached home is $1,098,900, representing a one percent decrease from June 2022 but a 1.5 percent increase compared to May 2023.
The Greater Vancouver real estate market has been experiencing a slowdown in recent times. However, experienced investors understand that a slower market presents unique opportunities that can be harnessed for greater returns. Here are three ways smart real estate investors take advantage of a slower real estate market in Greater Vancouver:
Upsizing:
One way smart real estate investors take advantage of a slower market is by upsizing their real estate portfolio. In a slow market, the more expensive properties tend to drop in price more, which presents a perfect opportunity for investors to acquire larger and more valuable properties. For instance, an investor who wants to move from a condo to a single-family home can leverage the slowdown to acquire a bigger and more luxurious property at a lower price than would be possible in a hot market.
The key is to identify properties that are likely to retain their value in the long term. This means focusing on properties with excellent location, good amenities, and good resale potential. An experienced real estate agent can help investors identify such properties and guide them through the upsizing process.
Buying pre-sale properties from developers:
Another way smart real estate investors take advantage of a slower market is by buying pre-sale properties from developers. During a slow market, developers are often eager to move their inventory and may offer attractive incentives to buyers. In addition, interest rates are expected to go down in the future, which makes buying pre-sale properties an even more attractive option.
Investors can leverage this opportunity by identifying pre-sale properties with excellent potential for capital appreciation. This means focusing on properties in areas with good growth potential, excellent amenities, and strong demand. Additionally, investors should work with reputable developers with a track record of delivering quality properties on time.
Buying long-term investment properties:
A slower real estate market presents a perfect opportunity for investors to acquire long-term investment properties. The rental market in Greater Vancouver is still very strong, which means that investors can acquire properties and generate steady rental income over the long term.
Smart investors focus on properties that have good rental potential, such as those in areas with high demand, excellent amenities, and good transportation links. Additionally, investors should focus on properties with good long-term growth potential, such as those in areas with strong job growth and population growth.
Investors should also consider the potential for future development, such as adding additional rental units to the property or converting the property to other uses. This can help to increase the property’s value over time and generate even greater returns.
In conclusion, a slower real estate market in Greater Vancouver presents unique opportunities for smart real estate investors. By upsizing their portfolio, buying pre-sale properties from developers, and acquiring long-term investment properties, investors can take advantage of the slowdown to generate greater returns over the long term. However, it’s important to work with experienced real estate professionals who can help identify the best opportunities and guide investors through the process of acquiring and managing real estate assets.
