Month: February 2025

Vancouver Real Estate Market Outlook for 2025

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British Columbia’s housing market is set for a year of mixed results in 2025. While resale activity is expected to rebound after years of slowdown, the rental market will likely experience softening with higher vacancy rates. Meanwhile, new home construction is projected to see only marginal growth as demand for presale units gradually returns.

Regional Overview: How Population Growth is Shaping the Market

Slower population growth in British Columbia is expected to have a significant impact on housing demand. Economic growth is anticipated to be sluggish in early 2025, with employment conditions weakening until mid-year before rebounding in 2026 and 2027. While wages and disposable income have seen strong growth in recent years, they are expected to remain flat in 2025, affecting affordability and purchasing power.

Additionally, changes to Canada’s immigration policy will influence housing demand. Metro Vancouver remains a top destination for international migrants, but overall net migration is expected to slow. Meanwhile, high housing costs will continue driving some B.C. residents to seek more affordable options in areas like Chilliwack, Victoria, and Kelowna. Interprovincial migration trends suggest a growing number of British Columbians moving to the Prairie provinces in search of lower-cost housing.

Resale Market: A Rebound on the Horizon

After two years of declining sales, Vancouver and Victoria’s resale markets are poised for a turnaround in 2025. Lower mortgage rates are expected to expand borrowing capacity, allowing more buyers to enter the market. While sales in 2025 are projected to increase, they will likely remain below the highs seen in 2021.

Recent reductions in interest rates began to impact resale activity in late 2024, with stronger sales compared to the previous year. This trend is expected to continue, leading to increased demand and upward pressure on home prices. However, the effects of slowing immigration will be more pronounced in the rental market than in resale activity, with the biggest impact concentrated in Metro Vancouver.

Home Prices: A Year of Growth Followed by Stabilization

Increased sales activity will help absorb existing inventory in the form of unsold new homes and active resale listings. The average time homes spend on the market is expected to decline slightly after increasing over the past two years. This will contribute to a more competitive market, leading to price growth primarily in 2025, followed by marginal increases in the years beyond.

Higher borrowing capacity—enabled by wage growth and low mortgage rates—will support home price appreciation. Additionally, investor activity is expected to pick up, particularly in the presale market, as expectations for price growth return.

New Home Construction: Modest Growth Expected

Housing starts in Vancouver and Victoria are projected to increase slightly in 2025 after a sluggish 2024. The growth will be led by multi-unit developments, particularly in the rental sector, driven by government incentives and historically tight rental conditions. However, as more rental supply enters the market, developers may become cautious due to rising vacancy rates and slowing rent growth, which could limit new rental projects in the coming years.

Condominium construction remains challenging due to pricing pressures and weaker presale demand. Many projects have been delayed due to high unabsorbed inventory, with developers taking out additional financing to manage existing units. While lower mortgage rates and increased resale activity may help revive stalled projects, demand for high-priced presale units remains uncertain, particularly in Vancouver’s core.

Single-detached home construction is also expected to recover in 2025, supported by lower interest rates. However, long-term growth in this segment will be constrained by land shortages and high development costs.

Rental Market: Higher Vacancy Rates and Slower Rent Growth

The rental market in British Columbia is expected to see a significant increase in vacancy rates after years of historically low levels. This trend began in 2024 and is projected to continue as a record number of rental units enter the market. Many of these units will be priced at higher rents, potentially slowing absorption rates.

Lower population growth, particularly among new immigrants who typically enter the rental market first, will further dampen demand. While rental prices will continue rising due to the introduction of high-priced units, asking rents may face downward pressure as landlords compete for tenants. This could lead to improved affordability and increased tenant turnover as the gap between occupied unit rents and new rental prices narrows.

Key Takeaways for 2025

  • Resale Market: Sales activity will rebound due to lower mortgage rates, pushing prices to new highs by the end of the year.
  • New Construction: A modest recovery is expected, but long-term growth remains uncertain due to affordability constraints and land shortages.
  • Rental Market: Rising vacancy rates and slowing rent growth will ease pressure on renters, though newly built units may struggle with absorption.
  • Regional Trends: Metro Vancouver will continue to lead the province in housing activity, while more buyers seek affordability in areas like Surrey, Burnaby, and Victoria.
  • Government Policy: The increase in the insured mortgage price limit from $1 million to $1.5 million will boost sales, particularly for townhomes, benefiting dual-income households.

Looking Ahead

While 2025 will bring renewed activity in B.C.’s housing market, long-term challenges remain. Rising inventory levels, affordability concerns, and shifting migration trends will shape the future of real estate in the province. Whether you’re looking to buy, sell, or invest, staying informed on these trends will be crucial in making the right decisions in an evolving market.

For more insights on Vancouver and B.C.’s real estate market, subscribe to our updates and stay ahead of the latest trends!

Vancouver Enters the ‘Big Leagues’ of Development with Market Rental Housing Strategy

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The City of Vancouver is taking a bold step in tackling the housing crisis by launching a market rental housing strategy that could redefine urban development in Canada. Announced by Mayor Ken Sim, the plan involves building 4,300 market rental units on five city-owned sites, with the goal of creating long-term revenue to support affordable housing and community infrastructure.

A New Approach to Housing Development

Unlike traditional housing projects that rely on private developers, this initiative positions the City of Vancouver as both the landowner and developer—a first-of-its-kind move in Canada. While the city has previously used this model for non-market housing, this marks the first major venture into market rentals.

The Vancouver Housing Development Office (VHDO), established in 2023, will oversee the project. Two of the five proposed sites are located in downtown Vancouver, with others situated in Kingsway (2400 Motel site), Marpole, and Main & Terminal.

“This is about leveraging our land not only to deliver much-needed market rental housing but also to pilot a new way to generate non-tax revenue for the city,” said Mayor Sim. The additional revenue is expected to fund community centers, the Vancouver Affordable Housing Endowment Fund, and other city initiatives.

Balancing Public and Private Interests

City officials have emphasized that this strategy is about financial sustainability. The $6 billion property endowment fund, originally established in 1975, will play a key role. The goal is to generate consistent returns to fund public services, moving beyond the traditional model of relying solely on taxes and developer contributions.

“There is another definition of public benefit—the ongoing income stream coming in,” said Grace Cheng, the city’s director of long-term strategy and planning. This means funds could be allocated to renewing libraries, improving water and sewer infrastructure, or enhancing other public services.

The Financial Impact: Billions in Play

While the cost of development is yet to be finalized, city officials estimate that the project’s financial impact will be in the billions.

“The first task is to get these sites zoned for highest and best use under market rental tenure,” said Brad Foster, director of market rental housing at VHDO. “The next task will be, ‘How do we get them built?’ And that’s where all the finance discussions will take place.”

Deputy city manager Armin Amrolia reinforced this, saying, “This is the big leagues of development, and we aim to not shy away from that.”

Who Can Afford These Rentals?

Once completed, these rental units will be targeted toward middle-income earners, with household eligibility ranging between $90,000 and $194,000 per year, based on today’s market rates. This move is expected to address the housing gap for professionals and working families who often struggle to find affordable housing in Vancouver’s competitive market.

The Future of Vancouver Housing

The five sites designated for this project include:

  • Pacific & Hornby: Two towers (54 and 40 stories) with 1,136 homes.
  • Main & Terminal: Currently a parking lot, planned for redevelopment.
  • Granville Bridge North End: Four proposed towers.
  • 2400 Motel (Kingsway): Major transformation planned.
  • Granville & 67th (Marpole): Another key development site.

This ambitious strategy reflects a “made-in-Vancouver” solution to the housing crisis—one that prioritizes long-term financial stability while increasing rental supply. If successful, it could serve as a model for other cities facing similar challenges.

What’s Next?

The city still needs to finalize zoning, secure development partners, and approve financing agreements before breaking ground. However, officials remain optimistic that this bold initiative will help reshape Vancouver’s housing landscape for the better.

With billions of dollars in play and thousands of new homes on the horizon, Vancouver is stepping into a new era of real estate development—one where the city itself is leading the charge.

Vancouver Real Estate Market Sees Surge in New Listings to Start 2025

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The Metro Vancouver real estate market is off to an active start in 2025, with a significant increase in new listings as sellers rush to enter the market. According to the latest report from Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR), the number of homes newly listed on the MLS® system rose by 46% in January compared to the same time last year.

This shift suggests a potential change in market dynamics, with sellers becoming more active after a strong finish to 2024.

Home Sales and Listings: Key Market Trends

January 2025 saw 1,552 home sales, an 8.8% increase compared to January 2024. However, this figure remains 11.3% below the 10-year seasonal average of 1,749 sales.

On the supply side, there were 5,566 new listings across detached, attached, and apartment properties—a 46.9% jump from January 2024 and 31.1% above the 10-year average. The total number of properties for sale has also grown to 11,494, marking a 33.1% increase from last year.

What This Means for Buyers & Sellers

With new listings outpacing demand, the market remains in balanced conditions. According to Andrew Lis, GVR’s Director of Economics and Data Analytics, the recent increase in listings has kept home prices relatively stable to start the year.

The sales-to-active listings ratio, a key market indicator, stands at 14.1% overall. Breaking it down by property type:

  • Detached homes: 9.2%
  • Attached homes (townhouses, duplexes): 18.5%
  • Apartments: 16.5%

Historically, prices tend to decline when this ratio falls below 12% and increase when it exceeds 20% for a sustained period. Since the current ratio remains within a balanced range, price growth has been minimal.

Vancouver Home Prices: Where Do We Stand?

  • Overall Benchmark Price: $1,173,000 (📈 +0.5% YoY)
  • Detached Homes: $2,005,400 (📈 +3.1% YoY)
  • Apartment Homes: $748,100 (📉 -1.7% YoY)
  • Townhouses: $1,105,600 (📈 +2.7% YoY)

While detached and townhouse prices have increased slightly over the past year, apartment prices have dipped. This suggests that affordability concerns may be impacting the condo market more than other segments.

Economic Uncertainty Could Impact Future Trends

Despite the strong start to 2025, experts warn that external factors could influence the housing market in the coming months. Tariffs from the U.S. and potential economic instability could create uncertainty, affecting both buyer demand and seller confidence.

“Our 2025 forecast calls for moderate price growth by the end of the year, but economic shocks—such as the impact of U.S. tariffs on Canada—could alter these projections,” said Lis.

Should You Buy or Sell in 2025?

With more homes hitting the market, buyers have more options than they did a year ago. However, prices remain stable, meaning sellers are still in a decent position—especially in the detached home and townhouse segments.

If you’re considering buying or selling, staying informed on market trends will be key. The coming months will determine whether demand keeps up with rising inventory, or if we shift into a buyer’s market with more downward pressure on prices.

Why You Can’t Afford to Live in Vancouver: Exclusionary Zoning Explained

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Vancouver is at the heart of British Columbia’s housing crisis, yet the city continues to restrict new apartment buildings on most of its residential land, preserving it for low-density, single-family housing. While minor zoning reforms have taken place in recent years, more than three-quarters of Vancouver’s residential land still prohibits apartment construction. This outdated zoning policy is not just a relic of the past—it is actively worsening the housing crisis.

The Problem with Exclusionary Zoning

For decades, Vancouver has only allowed apartment buildings in select areas, typically along noisy arterial roads and in older neighborhoods with existing apartments. Meanwhile, the wealthiest single-family neighborhoods remain largely untouched to avoid opposition from Not-In-My-Backyard (NIMBY) advocates.

Although the B.C. government has started pushing back on exclusionary zoning, it has yet to take the crucial step of overturning the apartment ban. This persistent restriction is driving up housing costs, displacing renters, and fueling urban sprawl. Here’s how:

1. Restricting Housing Supply

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) estimates that B.C. needs 610,000 additional homes by 2030beyond current trends. However, by preventing apartments in most areas, Vancouver is artificially constraining supply and keeping housing unaffordable.

2. Forcing Tenant Displacement

With apartments banned in most residential areas, developers target existing apartment buildings for redevelopment, leading to evictions and displacement of renters. If new apartments were allowed in single-family zones, this could alleviate pressure on older rental buildings.

3. Increasing Housing Costs

Since apartment-zoned land is scarce, developers—both for-profit and non-profit—must compete for a limited supply of sites, inflating land prices. The rezoning process itself can cost non-profit housing developers between $500,000 to $1 million, further driving up rents and affordability challenges.

4. Blocking People from Living in Desired Areas

By banning apartments in wealthier neighborhoods, exclusionary zoning ensures that lower-income individuals and renters are forced into high-traffic areas. This policy reinforces economic segregation and limits housing choices.

5. Promoting Suburban Sprawl

With housing options limited in Vancouver, many people are pushed to the suburbs, increasing commute times, transportation costs, and urban congestion. This shift also leads to greater carbon emissions and environmental harm.

6. Raising Infrastructure Costs

Denser housing reduces the per-capita cost of infrastructure like roads, sewers, and schools. However, by enforcing low-density zoning, Vancouver is increasing long-term infrastructure costs and making it harder to address the existing infrastructure deficit.

7. Hindering Economic Growth

By restricting housing in high-opportunity cities like Vancouver, exclusionary zoning prevents workers from accessing better jobs, ultimately stalling economic mobility and growth.

Is Reform on the Horizon?

The B.C. government has introduced legislation to allow multiplexes in single-family areas and to enable apartment buildings within 800 meters of major transit hubs. However, these measures don’t go far enough, and cities like Vancouver still have too many loopholes that allow them to maintain exclusionary zoning policies.

The B.C. Conservative Party has opposed these reforms outright, while the B.C. Green Party has supported housing near transit but voted against multiplex zoning in single-family neighborhoods. With a provincial election approaching, the future of zoning reform hangs in the balance.

The Path Forward

If Vancouver is serious about solving its housing crisis, it must end the apartment ban and allow at least six-storey rental apartments by default anywhere that single-family homes can currently be built. Additionally, non-market housing should receive even greater density allowances to ensure affordability for lower-income residents.

The housing crisis won’t be solved by half-measures. Until the apartment ban is lifted, Vancouver will continue to struggle with affordability, displacement, and economic stagnation. The time for action is now.