Market update

Metro Vancouver Sees Largest Quarterly Presale Inventory Release In Two Years

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Metro Vancouver has just experienced the largest quarterly presale inventory release since mid-2022, according to a recent report by real estate sales and marketing firm MLA Canada. The second quarter of 2024 saw a significant influx of new units hitting the market, with varied absorption trends across the region.

In Q2 2024, around 5,850 units were released: 1,600 in April, 2,000 in May, and 2,250 in June. This surpasses the supply release of over 3,000 units in October 2023 and is comparable to Q2 2022, which saw approximately 5,900 units released.

However, despite this surge in inventory, sales velocity in the presales market has been slow. Demand, as measured by the number of units sold and same-month absorptions, was higher in previous quarters than in Q2 2024. MLA Canada notes that while same-month absorptions were notably high at the start of the year, fueled by projects that had been previewing for months, absorption rates began to decline by May and June. This decline can be partly attributed to the seasonal shift from the active Spring market to the slower Summer months.

Overall, in the first half of 2024, the Lower Mainland saw an average same-month absorption rate of 33%, with 2,848 units sold out of 8,593 released units across 68 projects. Interestingly, the Fraser Valley outperformed the Greater Vancouver region, with more units sold (1,631 out of 4,546) and released than Greater Vancouver (1,217 out of 4,047). The Fraser Valley’s higher sales-to-listings ratio, at around 36%, compared to Greater Vancouver’s 30%, is largely due to its more competitively priced offerings.

Due to reduced sales velocity, developers are extending the length of sales campaigns, and sales teams are no longer seeing towers sell out within weeks of launch. This has led to increased competition among developers, resulting in more options and incentives for prospective buyers.

Looking ahead, MLA Canada projects 10,500 units across 42 more launches in the second half of the year, with an average same-month absorption rate of 35%. Although this level of activity is an improvement from 2023, it remains below historical norms and is expected to align with slower years.

“Presale buyer urgency is low, and almost every deal involves negotiations, especially at the higher end of the pricing spectrum,” said MLA Canada’s Director of Advisory Garde MacDonald. “We foresee that the remainder of the year will build on existing trends. While we anticipate a seasonal upswing in the Fall, the market outlook for H2 2024 does not look markedly different from today.”

Market Shifts in Favor of Buyers, Though Hesitation Remains – July 2024 Market Update

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VANCOUVER, BC – July 3, 2024– Home sales in Metro Vancouver registered on the MLS® remained below seasonal and historical averages in June. Reduced competition among buyers has led to an accumulation of inventory levels not seen since the spring of 2019.

The Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR) reported that residential sales in the region totaled 2,418 in June 2024, marking a 19.1% decrease from the 2,988 sales recorded in June 2023. This figure is 23.6% below the 10-year seasonal average of 3,166.

“The June data continued a trend we’ve been observing where buyers seem hesitant to transact in volumes typical for this time of year, while sellers are keen to list their properties,” said Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics. “This dynamic is pushing inventory levels up to a healthy range not seen since before the pandemic. Buyers now have more options to choose from, driving all market segments towards balanced conditions.”

In June 2024, there were 5,723 new listings for detached, attached, and apartment properties on the MLS® in Metro Vancouver, a 7% increase compared to the 5,347 properties listed in June 2023. This total is 3% above the 10-year seasonal average of 5,554.

The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 14,182, a 42% increase compared to June 2023’s 9,990. This is 20.3% above the 10-year seasonal average of 11,790.

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for June 2024 is 17.6%. By property type, the ratio is 13.1% for detached homes, 21.1% for attached properties, and 20.3% for apartments. Historical data analysis suggests that downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12% for a sustained period, while home prices often rise when it surpasses 20% over several months.

“With an interest rate announcement from the Bank of Canada expected in July, there’s a possibility of another rate cut this summer. This could further tilt the market in favor of buyers, even if the boost to affordability is modest,” Lis said. “However, June’s lower-than-normal transaction volumes suggest many buyers remain hesitant, allowing inventory to accumulate and keeping upward price pressure in check across market segments. That said, well-priced properties are still selling quickly, indicating that astute buyers are spotting and acting on value opportunities.”

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,207,100, reflecting a 0.5% increase over June 2023 and a 0.4% decrease compared to May 2024.

Sales of detached homes in June 2024 reached 694, an 18.2% decrease from the 848 sales in June 2023. The benchmark price for a detached home is $2,061,000, a 3.7% increase from June 2023 and a 0.1% decrease compared to May 2024.

Sales of apartment homes totaled 1,245 in June 2024, a 20.9% decrease from the 1,573 sales in June 2023. The benchmark price of an apartment is $773,400, a 1% increase from June 2023 and a 0.4% decrease compared to May 2024.

Attached home sales in June 2024 totaled 456, a 16.6% decrease from the 547 sales in June 2023. The benchmark price of a townhouse is $1,138,100, a 3% increase from June 2023 and a 0.6% decrease compared to May 2024.

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Vancouver real estate market update for June 2024

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Home sales in Metro Vancouver have declined in May, deviating from the typical seasonal trend. This slowdown has contributed to a continued rise in the number of homes available for sale, with over 13,000 properties now listed on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®).

The Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR) reported 2,733 residential sales in May 2024, marking a 19.9% decrease from the 3,411 sales in May 2023. This figure is also 19.6% below the 10-year seasonal average for May, which stands at 3,398.

“The surprising element in May’s data is the softer-than-expected sales, coupled with a strong influx of new listings following April’s trends,” said Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics. “These trends are influenced by multiple factors, including higher borrowing costs, economic uncertainties, and government policy interventions.”

In May 2024, 6,374 detached, attached, and apartment properties were newly listed on the MLS® in Metro Vancouver, a 12.6% increase from the 5,661 listings in May 2023, and a 7% rise from the 10-year seasonal average of 5,958.

Currently, there are 13,600 properties listed for sale on the MLS® in Metro Vancouver, a 46.3% increase from May 2023’s total of 9,293, and a 19.9% increase over the 10-year seasonal average of 11,344.

For May 2024, the sales-to-active listings ratio across all property types is 20.8%. This breaks down to 16.8% for detached homes, 25.1% for attached homes, and 22.5% for apartment properties. Historically, when this ratio falls below 12% for an extended period, it puts downward pressure on home prices, whereas a ratio above 20% exerts upward pressure.

“With the market shifting towards more balanced conditions due to the rise in new listings outpacing sales, we can expect slower price growth in the coming months,” Lis noted. “While prices had been rising modestly across all market segments, increasing inventory and softening demand might present more opportunities for buyers this summer, even with high borrowing costs.”

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is now $1,212,000, reflecting a 2.3% increase from May 2023 and a 0.5% rise from April 2024.

In May 2024, sales of detached homes totaled 846, an 18.9% decrease from the 1,043 sales in May 2023. The benchmark price for a detached home is $2,062,600, representing a 5.9% increase from May 2023 and a 1.3% increase from April 2024.

Apartment sales in May 2024 reached 1,338, a 22.7% decrease from the 1,730 sales in May 2023. The benchmark price for an apartment is $776,200, a 2.2% increase from May 2023 and a 0.3% decrease from April 2024.

Sales of attached homes totaled 523 in May 2024, a 14% decrease from the 608 sales in May 2023. The benchmark price for a townhouse is $1,145,500.

Vancouver Real Estate Rollercoaster – May 2024 Market Update (Deep Dive)

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Unlock the secrets of Metro Vancouver’s thriving real estate market with our exclusive insights! In April 2024, the Vancouver real estate scene witnessed an unprecedented surge in inventory, reaching record highs unseen since the summer of 2020. As the Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR) report, actively listed homes for sale on the MLS® soared by an astounding 42 per cent year-over-year, breaching the 12,000 mark.

Buckle up as we delve into the heart of Vancouver’s real estate resurgence! Despite initial predictions of soaring inventory levels following the Bank of Canada’s aggressive rate hikes, the market has shown remarkable resilience, with demand remaining robust amidst the highest borrowing costs in over a decade. Explore the reasons behind this unexpected strength and gain valuable insights into the current dynamics shaping Vancouver’s real estate landscape.

But wait, there’s more! Brace yourself for a treasure trove of data-driven analysis. With 7,092 detached, attached, and apartment properties newly listed for sale in April 2024—a staggering 64.7 per cent increase from the previous year—the stage is set for a riveting exploration of Vancouver’s housing market evolution. From the sales-to-active listings ratio to the MLS® Home Price Index, uncover the key metrics driving the market’s trajectory and discover how they impact your real estate journey.

Prepare to be captivated by our expert commentary and in-depth analysis. Hear from industry insiders as they unravel the complexities of Vancouver’s real estate market, offering invaluable insights into what lies ahead for buyers, sellers, and investors. Gain a competitive edge with our actionable tips and strategies designed to navigate the ever-changing landscape of Metro Vancouver’s housing market.

Join us on a journey through the highs and lows of Vancouver’s real estate landscape. From soaring inventory levels to resilient demand, there’s never been a more exciting time to explore the possibilities that await in Metro Vancouver’s dynamic housing market. Don’t miss out on this exclusive opportunity to stay ahead of the curve and unlock the potential of Vancouver’s real estate market!

 

Desperate Measures: Vancouver Developers’ Fight for Survival

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In the bustling landscape of Vancouver’s real estate sector, a troubling trend is emerging. Despite the ongoing efforts of policymakers to spur development and alleviate the strain on the city’s housing market, a significant obstacle remains: a lack of interest from prospective homebuyers.

Amidst mortgage rates lingering at historic highs, developers of condominium projects find themselves grappling to ignite early enthusiasm among potential buyers, hindering the timely realization of new construction ventures. Adding to their challenges is a regulatory constraint unique to British Columbia, mandating a mere 12-month window for developers to market their projects, secure deposits, and secure the necessary financing for construction.

The pressure cooker environment has led to a flurry of requests from developers seeking extensions to these stringent deadlines, with the looming risk of forfeiting deposits should they fail to meet the prescribed timeline. Consequently, Vancouver has witnessed a decline of 20% in new home sales within the metro area, coupled with a surge in unsold inventory across various housing segments.

The predicament extends beyond the realm of developers, casting a shadow over prospective homebuyers as well. With Vancouver standing as one of the continent’s most expensive real estate markets, the dream of homeownership seems increasingly elusive for many. The scarcity of developable land, coupled with natural geographic barriers, exacerbates the city’s housing crisis, reflected in its staggering benchmark price of $1.2 million.

Renters, too, find themselves ensnared in the throes of Vancouver’s housing conundrum, grappling with vacancy rates languishing below one percent and exorbitant rental hikes. The dichotomy between stretched buyer budgets and burgeoning housing costs further compounds the challenge, rendering the 12-month marketing deadline imposed by British Columbia an additional hurdle in an already arduous journey toward homeownership.

The repercussions of this conundrum reverberate throughout the city’s landscape, evidenced by abandoned projects and returned deposits, indicative of the palpable strain gripping Vancouver’s real estate market. Efforts to address these challenges are underway, with industry stakeholders advocating for policy revisions to offer developers greater flexibility and alleviate the burden imposed by regulatory constraints.

As Vancouver contends with the complexities of its housing crisis, the need for innovative solutions and collaborative efforts becomes increasingly apparent. Whether through regulatory reforms, affordable housing initiatives, or alternative financing mechanisms, the path toward sustainable growth in Vancouver’s real estate sector necessitates proactive measures to navigate the current impasse.

In the face of mounting challenges, Vancouver stands at a pivotal juncture, poised to redefine its approach to housing development and affordability. How policymakers, developers, and stakeholders navigate these turbulent waters will shape the trajectory of Vancouver’s real estate landscape for years to come.

Canada’s Housing Market To SKYROCKET End Of 2024? Experts Predict A Price Surge!

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Royal LePage’s latest market forecast paints a vivid picture of Canada’s real estate landscape, predicting a significant 9% year-over-year increase in home prices by the fourth quarter of 2024. This upward revision stems from a robust first quarter, with strong price appreciation expected through the second and third quarters before tapering off towards year-end, aligning with seasonal trends.

The forecast highlights notable upgrades in major markets, particularly the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), where prices are anticipated to surge by 10%, surpassing the national average. Montreal follows closely behind with an 8.5% projected increase, while Calgary, Quebec City, and Greater Vancouver are forecasted to experience respective jumps of 8%, 8%, and 5.5%.

Royal LePage President Phil Soper attributes the current modest price rises to consumers, particularly first-time buyers, adapting to higher borrowing costs. However, he anticipates a steeper appreciation curve once the central bank enacts anticipated rate cuts, drawing in rate-focused buyers.

While easing rates will influence price upticks, the fundamental driver remains the severe housing shortage across the country. Soper warns of an intensifying seller’s market, foretelling a busy spring and fall for Canadian buyers and sellers alike.

Looking ahead, Royal LePage’s forecast suggests that by the end of 2026, the majority of mortgages will have transitioned into an elevated borrowing rate environment. Yet, this is not expected to significantly dampen the housing market’s resilience. Soper points to Canadians meeting their mortgage obligations amid record-low default rates and income growth offsetting increased mortgage costs. However, he anticipates a pullback in discretionary spending as individuals prioritize maintaining homeownership.

In summary, Royal LePage’s forecast outlines a dynamic Canadian housing market characterized by soaring prices, driven by a combination of factors including adapting consumer behavior, impending rate cuts, and the persistent housing shortage. Despite looming challenges, the market remains robust, with buyers and sellers navigating towards a seller-centric environment amidst projections of continued price appreciation.

Deep Dive: Metro Vancouver Real Estate Market Unraveled – Must-Watch Analysis! April 2024

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Spring breathes new life into Metro Vancouver’s real estate scene, ushering in a wave of activity from sellers and expanding options for buyers. The latest report from Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR) reveals a significant surge in MLS® listings, with a remarkable uptick of nearly 23 percent compared to the previous year.

March 2024 witnessed 2,415 residential sales in the region, marking a slight dip of 4.7 percent from the same period in 2023. Despite this minor decline, the market maintains its vigor, fueled by demand for competitively priced properties in strategic locales, shifting the balance further into sellers’ favor.

Across detached, attached, and apartment segments, new listings on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) soared by 15.9 percent compared to March 2023, reaching a total of 5,002. Presently, the MLS® system boasts 10,552 properties for sale, indicating a substantial 22.5 percent increase from March 2023.

Analysis of the sales-to-active listings ratio for March 2024 reveals a robust figure of 23.8 percent across all property types. Specifically, the ratio stands at 18.2 percent for detached homes, 31.3 percent for attached homes, and 25.8 percent for apartments. These figures underscore the pressure on home prices, with ratios below 12 percent suggesting downward trends and those surpassing 20 percent indicating upward momentum.

Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics, acknowledges the market’s relative cooling compared to the previous year but notes modest month-over-month price gains, ranging from one to two percent on aggregate. While Lis anticipates potential cuts to the Bank of Canada’s policy rate in 2024, he warns that these measures may not significantly ease affordability challenges, given the enduring constraints on borrowing power.

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver presently stands at $1,196,800, reflecting a 4.5 percent year-over-year increase.

Breaking down the sales data, detached home sales reached 694 in March 2024, down by 5.4 percent compared to March 2023. The benchmark price for detached homes stands at $2,007,900, up by 7.4 percent from March 2023.

Apartment home sales totaled 1,207 in March 2024, marking a 7.9 percent decrease from March 2023. The benchmark price for apartments is $777,500, showing a 5.7 percent year-over-year increase.

Attached home sales witnessed a modest increase of 6.2 percent in March 2024 compared to March 2023, totaling 495 sales. The benchmark price for townhouses rose to $1,112,800, reflecting a 5 percent increase from March 2023.

In summary, while Metro Vancouver’s real estate market experiences heightened seller activity, buyers should anticipate stiff competition, particularly for attractively priced properties in sought-after locations.

Listings Are UP! But Sales Are NOT! Vancouver March 2024 Real Estate Market Update

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In February 2024, Metro Vancouver’s housing market saw a notable increase in new listings, alleviating concerns about potential overheating. According to Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR), new listings rose by 31% year-over-year, reaching 4,560 properties listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®). This surge in listings provided buyers with more choices as the spring and summer markets approached.

Residential sales in the region totaled 2,070 in February 2024, marking a 13.5% increase from the previous year. However, this figure was 23.3% below the 10-year seasonal average, highlighting a slower pace compared to historical trends. GVR’s director of economics and data analytics, Andrew Lis, expressed relief at the increase in new listings, stating that it would ease the pressure that had built up in January.

Despite the rise in listings, the total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver increased by 16.3% compared to February 2023, totaling 9,634 properties. This was 3% above the 10-year seasonal average. The sales-to-active listings ratio for February 2024 stood at 22.4%, with varying ratios for detached homes (16%), attached homes (27.9%), and apartments (25.9%).

Lis noted that the increase in new listings did not sufficiently counterbalance the pace of sales to prevent price acceleration. Consequently, the market remained in sellers’ territory, contributing to modest price growth across all segments. However, benchmark prices were still below the peak observed in the spring of 2022, before the full impact of the Bank of Canada’s tightening cycle was internalized.

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver reached $1,183,300, reflecting a 4.5% increase from February 2023. While there was modest price growth across all property types, benchmark prices remained below the 2022 peak.

Detached home sales increased by 8.3%, reaching 560 in February 2024, with a benchmark price of $1,972,400. Apartment home sales saw a 17.7% increase, totaling 1,092, with a benchmark price of $770,700. Attached home sales reached 403, marking a 10.1% increase, with a townhouse benchmark price of $1,094,700. Overall, the market demonstrated resilience, showing both increased supply and demand, with moderate price growth in February 2024.

Vancouver real estate market update – February 2024

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The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reported a strong start for home sales in Metro Vancouver in January 2024. Residential sales surged by 38.5% compared to January 2023, totaling 1,427 units. This increase favored sellers, signaling a shift from the balanced market conditions at the end of 2023. However, the pace of new property listings did not match the rise in sales, resulting in a 20.2% decrease from the 10-year seasonal average.

Andrew Lis, REBGV’s director of economics and data analytics, noted the unexpected strength in January sales following a quiet December. He expressed concerns about insufficient inventory potentially leading to increased competition among buyers, pushing the market back into sellers’ territory.

In January 2024, 3,788 properties were newly listed for sale, marking a 14.5% increase from January 2023. However, this figure remained 9.1% below the 10-year seasonal average. The total number of properties listed for sale in Metro Vancouver increased by 9.8% compared to January 2023, totaling 8,633 units, albeit slightly below the 10-year average.

The sales-to-active listings ratio for January 2024 stood at 17.2%, with ratios varying across property types: 11.9% for detached homes, 22.9% for attached, and 19.9% for apartments. Analysis of historical data indicated downward pressure on prices below 12% and upward pressure above 20% for a sustained period.

The forecast for 2024 predicts a 2-3% price increase by year-end, driven by demand outpacing inventory. Lis emphasized that the January figures might indicate a stronger market than initially anticipated and suggested monitoring February data to confirm trends.

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver was $1,161,300, reflecting a 4.2% increase from January 2023 and a 0.6% decrease from December 2023. Sales of detached homes increased by 28% year-over-year, with a benchmark price of $1,942,400, up 7.3% from January 2023. Apartment sales rose by 30.6%, with a benchmark price of $751,900, while attached home sales surged by 82.7%, with a benchmark price of $1,066,700 for townhouses.

The data suggests a robust market at the beginning of 2024, with sales increases across property types. However, concerns linger regarding the imbalance between supply and demand, potentially affecting future market dynamics.

Vancouver real estate market update January 2024

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In December 2023, the Metro Vancouver residential real estate market demonstrated mixed signals, with total residential sales reaching 1,345, marking a modest 3.2% increase from the same month in 2022. However, this uptick in sales was notably below the 10-year seasonal average by a substantial 36.4%, reflecting a market that, while showing signs of recovery, still faced challenges.

New property listings, encompassing detached, attached, and apartment properties, reached 1,327 in December 2023. This represented a notable 9.9% increase compared to the listings in December 2022. Despite this increase, the figure remained 22.7% below the 10-year seasonal average of 1,716. This discrepancy between sales and new listings suggested a market with a persisting supply-demand imbalance.

Analyzing the sales-to-active listings ratio for December 2023 revealed a broader perspective on market dynamics. The overall ratio stood at 16%, indicating a delicate equilibrium between supply and demand. However, when broken down by property type, the ratios varied — 11.1% for detached homes, 18.7% for attached properties, and 19.6% for apartments. According to historical data analysis, sustained ratios below 12% typically exert downward pressure on home prices, while ratios exceeding 20% over several months often lead to upward price pressure.

Detached home sales in December 2023 reached 376, representing a modest 1.3% increase from December 2022. The benchmark price for a detached home was $1,964,400, reflecting a 7.7% increase from the previous year. However, compared to November 2023, there was a slight 0.9% decrease in the benchmark price, suggesting a nuanced pricing trend.

Sales of apartment homes in December 2023 reached 719, a 2.4% increase compared to December 2022. The benchmark price for an apartment home was $751,300, indicating a 5.6% increase from the previous year. However, there was a 1.5% decrease in the benchmark price compared to November 2023, highlighting potential month-to-month volatility.

Attached home sales in December 2023 totaled 238, marking a more substantial 7.2% increase compared to December 2022. The benchmark price for a townhouse was $1,072,700, representing a 6.4% increase from the previous year. The performance of attached homes hinted at a segment of the market that was experiencing relative strength.

The data painted a nuanced picture of the Metro Vancouver real estate market at the close of 2023. While there was a year-over-year increase in residential sales, the figures remained notably below the 10-year seasonal averages, indicating persistent challenges. The sales-to-active listings ratio provided insights into the delicate balance between supply and demand, with potential implications for future price trends.

In conclusion, the market dynamics in Metro Vancouver at the end of 2023 reflected a landscape in transition. A careful analysis of sales, new listings, and price benchmarks highlighted both positive and challenging aspects, underscoring the complexity of the real estate ecosystem in the region.