Month: April 2025

Is Metro Vancouver Headed for a Condo Crisis? What Buyers, Sellers, and Investors Need to Know

Oleg First time buyers, For Buyers, For Sellers, Market update, Statistics, Videos

A new report by Rennie is raising alarm bells for Metro Vancouver’s condo market: we could see a 60% spike in unsold inventory by the end of 2025.

Yes, you read that right—thousands of brand-new condo units may sit empty by the end of this year. So what’s really going on? And more importantly, what does it mean for you?

Hi, I’m Oleg, a local real estate agent with over 10 years of experience in Vancouver. Let’s break down the data, explore why this is happening, and talk about what it means whether you’re a buyer, seller, or investor.

📊 Where Is This Number Coming From?

Rennie just released their Spring Market Outlook for 2025, and here’s what it shows:

  • 2,100 completed but unsold new condo units are currently on the market.

  • Based on current absorption rates, that number is expected to rise to 3,500 by year-end—a 60% increase in just a few months.

🔍 What’s Causing the Spike in Inventory?

There’s a combination of obvious and not-so-obvious reasons behind the looming oversupply:

1. High Interest Rates

Borrowing costs surged over the past couple of years. While rates are trending downward and the Bank of Canada is holding steady, confidence remains low among both homebuyers and investors.

2. Falling Investor Confidence

Investor participation in pre-sale condos has dropped sharply:

  • Down from around 50% in 2021–2023

  • Now hovering around 26% in 2024

  • Expected to fall further in 2025

3. Government Policy Changes

Recent policy shifts have shaken the market, including:

  • The effective ban on short-term rentals

  • Proposed capital gains tax increases (even if partially walked back) These have discouraged both local and international investors.

4. International Trade Tensions

The ongoing tariff issues with the U.S. are impacting both construction costs and consumer confidence, affecting both the pre-sale and resale housing markets.

🤔 Less Obvious Factors Behind the Inventory Surge

5. A Wave of New Completions

We saw record housing starts in 2022 and 2023. Now those projects are completing—and flooding the market with new inventory.

6. Changes to Development Financing Rules

In Fall 2024, changes to the Real Estate Development Marketing Act extended the timeline developers have to sell 70% of a building from 12 to 18 months. While this gives them more time to secure financing, it’s also delaying clearance of unsold inventory and increasing total supply on the market.

💡 What Does This Mean for You?

Whether this is good or bad news depends entirely on your role in the market.

🏡 If You’re a Buyer:

This is your moment.

  • More inventory = more choices

  • Greater negotiating power

  • Downward pressure on prices

Even if you’re not buying pre-construction, the ripple effect across the resale market will benefit you.

📉 If You’re a Seller:

You need to be strategic and competitive.

  • Focus on today’s prices, not what your neighbor sold for 2 years ago.

  • Understand the current market conditions and buyer expectations. If you’re selling a newer condo, especially, you’ll need to stand out on pricing and presentation.

💰 If You’re an Investor:

This is a mixed bag.

  • Rents may decline by 4–5% over the next 12 months

  • But you gain negotiating power and access to better deals If you can buy the right unit at the right price, you may still come out ahead despite the softer rental market.

📈 Looking Ahead: Not All Doom and Gloom

While short-term challenges are real, there’s room for optimism in the long term:

  • Developers are shifting focus to purpose-built rental buildings, which are easier to finance and in high demand.

  • Housing starts are down in 2025, meaning by 2027–2029, we could see a supply shortage in for-sale condos again.

In other words, the market is adjusting, and this temporary oversupply could create buying opportunities today and balance in the years ahead.

Final Thoughts

Yes, we might see a spike in unsold condo inventory. But no, it’s not the end of the world. It’s a natural part of a cyclical real estate market—and if you’re informed, you can use it to your advantage.

I’ll continue keeping you up to date on the Vancouver real estate market. If you’re looking to buy, sell, or invest, or even if you just want advice, feel free to reach out anytime. My contact info is below.

Thanks for reading!

Who’s Buying in the Vancouver Real Estate Market Right Now?

Oleg First time buyers, For Buyers, For Sellers, Opinion, Videos

The Vancouver real estate market is undoubtedly slower than usual, but that doesn’t mean people have stopped buying. In fact, just last month alone, over 2,000 properties were purchased across Metro Vancouver. So, who exactly is buying real estate in this market — and why?

As a Vancouver real estate agent with over 11 years of experience helping buyers and sellers navigate the market, I want to break it down for you. Understanding who is active in the market today can help you make smarter decisions, whether you’re planning to buy or sell.

1. Upsizers Are Taking Advantage

One major group of buyers right now are upsizers — people moving from a smaller property, like a townhouse, into a detached home.

When the Vancouver housing market softens, upsizing actually becomes a smart financial move. Here’s why: if prices drop 10%, a $1.5M detached house falls by $150,000, while a $750,000 townhouse only drops by $75,000. Upsizers gain more value in the larger property relative to their loss on the smaller one.

If you’re considering buying a larger home in Vancouver, this slower market could offer the perfect opportunity.

2. First-Time Home Buyers Are Entering the Market

Another group actively buying real estate in Vancouver are first-time home buyers, particularly renters who have been forced to move due to landlord sales or end-of-lease notices.

For renters who already have a down payment saved and feel secure in their jobs, buying now — even in a slower market — often makes more sense than entering into another expensive rental lease.

3. Downsizers Are Selling and Moving to Condos

People who have owned their homes for 20+ years, many of whom are mortgage-free, are starting to downsize.

Despite a cooling market, Vancouver real estate prices remain historically high. Downsizers can sell their detached homes, purchase a condo or townhouse, and free up capital for retirement — an appealing option especially with recent stock market volatility.

4. Family-Oriented Investors Planning for the Future

Unlike speculators, these family investors buy pre-sale properties now with plans for their children to live there in a few years.

These buyers aren’t looking for a quick flip — they’re planning ahead for their kids, locking in today’s prices and setting their families up for future success in the Vancouver real estate market.

5. Who Is NOT Buying Right Now?

Notably absent from today’s market are short-term speculators and long-term real estate investors.

Higher interest rates and dropping rental rates in Vancouver have made investment properties less attractive. Additionally, with less opportunity for quick gains, speculators who usually target pre-sales have largely pulled back.

Should You Buy or Sell Real Estate in Vancouver Now?

Deciding whether to buy or sell depends on two factors:

  1. The current market conditions

  2. Your personal circumstances

Sometimes, even if the market isn’t “perfect,” your situation (family growth, job stability, moving needs) may make buying or selling the right move. As always, it’s important to consult with a local Vancouver real estate expert to assess your specific situation.

Final Thoughts

While the Vancouver real estate market has cooled compared to recent years, there is still a healthy amount of buying activity — especially among upsizers, first-time buyers, downsizers, and family-oriented investors.

If you’re planning to buy your first home, upsize to a larger property, or downsize for retirement, understanding who else is active in the market can give you a strategic advantage.

If you have any questions about buying or selling real estate in Vancouver, I’m always happy to help! Feel free to contact me directly — whether you need advice, a personalized market evaluation, or just want to chat about your next move.

👉 Download my FREE Vancouver First-Time Home Buyer Guide here (no signup required!)
👉 Get in touch via email, phone, or text for expert advice tailored to you.

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✅ Selling a home in Vancouver
✅ First-time home buyer Vancouver
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✅ Vancouver pre-sale condos

 

The Growing Housing Affordability Gap in Vancouver Is Pricing Out the Middle Class

Oleg Articles, First time buyers, For Buyers, For Sellers, Market update, Videos

The difference between household income and what homebuyers can actually qualify for in Vancouver continues to widen — making homeownership increasingly out of reach for many.

According to a new report from Ratesdotca, a provider of digital insurance and financial services, the gap in Vancouver between what the average household can afford and what they actually need to earn to purchase an average-priced home is the highest in Canada — a staggering $121,053.

Victor Tran, mortgage and real estate expert at Ratesdotca, says the current economic climate is discouraging for would-be buyers:

“The current economic environment is not encouraging for many would-be homeowners, who may be uneasy taking on a large debt such as a mortgage in uncertain times.”

While sluggish sales have softened prices in some parts of the country, markets like Vancouver remain resilient, with prices staying elevated due to ongoing demand and limited supply. Tran believes that meaningful price drops are unlikely in traditionally desirable cities like Vancouver.

Using data from Statistics Canada and wage growth projections from Normandin-Beaudry, Ratesdotca calculated the maximum mortgage an average Vancouver household can afford. That number was then compared to the income actually needed to buy a home at the average market price.

In Vancouver, where the average home price is $1.2 million, a household would need to earn over $250,000 annually to qualify. But in reality, the average family can only qualify for a mortgage of about $600,000 — leaving a massive affordability gap.

“In Vancouver, this gap represents more than an entire income for many households,” the report said.

Key Findings from the Report:

  • Vancouver has the worst affordability gap in the country, with a shortfall of $121,053 between what’s needed and what’s realistically affordable for the average household.

  • Housing in Alberta remains more accessible, with Calgary showing an $18,643 income surplus and Edmonton leading with a $50,604 surplus.

  • High housing costs in Vancouver have triggered migration trends. The city has seen a significant loss in population, with residents moving to more affordable regions — a pattern also seen in Toronto and Montreal.

  • Condos are more affordable than detached homes, but the situation is still bleak. In Vancouver, the income gap to afford a condo remains substantial, although better than for single-family homes.

Tran explains the gap has grown significantly in Vancouver over the last five years, largely due to limited land availability and soaring demand. And even with more development or zoning changes, affordability will remain a major issue unless household incomes rise or buyers come up with significantly larger down payments.

“Unless people can come up with a higher down payment, their income can only qualify for so much,” he said.
“It’s difficult to find a new job with a substantial income jump, so it really comes down to how much more money can be put into that down payment.”

Despite the challenges, Tran believes the market will continue to move — just not for everyone.

“Unfortunately, a large percentage of the population in Vancouver won’t be able to enter the market. Many young people in their 20s and 30s are starting to give up on the dream of homeownership.”

The silver lining? Rents are starting to decline slightly, providing some relief for those staying out of the ownership race.

“There’s nothing wrong with renting,” Tran says. “If we look at countries in Europe and Asia, it’s totally normal to rent for life — people are generally happier and not tied to overwhelming debt.”