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EVERYTHING you NEED to KNOW about Burnaby BC housing market – December 2016

Oleg Articles, First time buyers, For Buyers, For Sellers, Statistics 0 Comment

burnaby bc home

Here is a detailed breakdown of the Burnaby detached housing market for November 2016 and for the past 3 years. In this breakdown I will solely focus on detached houses in Burnaby South, Burnaby North and Burnaby East areas. We will only look at the resale properties, brand new construction is not included.

See all houses for sale in Burnaby BC here.

*All of the market statistics and graphs were taken from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.

Lets start with Average Sales Price of Houses in Burnaby in November 2016 and for the past 3 years (see graph below)

Burnaby: $1,491,466 | +6.9% (change since November 2015)

The sales price is up by almost 7 percent as compared to November 2015. However, we see a significant drop in the sales price as compared to Spring and Summer of 2016. Prices started to dip in August of 2016, right around the time “foreign buyers tax” was introduced.

 

Next, lets have a look at the Average Percent of Original Price sellers in Burnaby are getting for their houses in November 2016 and for the past 3 years (see graph below)

Burnaby: 94.2% | -7.0% (change since November 2015)

There is a small decline in the percentage of then original price as compared to November of 2015. If we compare current average percent of original price with the average percent of original price in Spring and Summer of 2016 the different is substantial. At the hight of the market this year seller were receiving offers 5-10% over their original asking price.

 

Next, Total Inventory of Detached Houses for Sale in Burnaby in November 2016 and for the past 3 years (see graph below)

Burnaby: 394 | +60.8% (change since November 2015)

We see substantially more inventory on the market this November as compared to November 2015. However, total inventory for this November is still right around the 10 year average.

 

Now, lets take a look at the Number of New Listings on the Market in Burnaby BC in November 2016 and for the past 3 years (see graph below)

Burnaby: 82 | -7.9% (change since November 2015)

There are actually fewer new listings on the market this November as compared to November 2015. The number of new listings in November 2016 is around the 10 year average.

 

Lets take look at Total Number of Sales in Burnaby in November 2016 and for the past 3 years (see graph below)

Burnaby: 48 | -55.1% (change since November 2015)

The total number of sales for November 2016 is less than a half of sales in November 2015. The number of sales for this November is alarmingly low, some of the lowest numbers we’ve seen in the last 10 years. If the sales don’t pick up in 2017 we might have a lot of leftover inventory which might cause prices to dip even more.

Lastly, lets have a look at Sales to Active Listing Ratio for house in Burnaby in November 2016 and for the last 3 years (see graph below)

Burnaby: 0.122 | -72.1% (change since November 2015)

We are currently in a “buyers market”. In November 2015 we had a strong “sellers market”. Real estate market for detached houses has shifted from “sellers market” to “buyers market” in July 2016. The “foreign buyers tax” (introduced in August 2016) has added breaks to the already slowing down market.

 

The increasing amount of inventory with the lack of buyers’ demand might cause house prices in Burnaby to dip even more in the near future.

I hope you found this article helpful. If so, please, share it with someone who’s looking for a house in Burnaby or someone who owns a Burnaby home and would appreciate the extra information.

EVERYTHING you NEED to KNOW about Vancouver Housing Market – December 2016

Oleg First time buyers, For Buyers, For Sellers, Statistics 1 Comment

vancouver single-family detached home

In this article I’m going to have a detailed breakdown of the Vancouver housing market for November 2016. Both Vancouver East and Vancouver West housing markets will be looked at. We will analyze single-family detached houses, resale houses only (brand new construction is will not be included).

Each graph goes back 3 years, from January 2013 to November 2016.

Find Vancouver houses for sale here.

Let’s start with an Average Sale Price of a detached houses in Vancouver in November 2016 and for the past 3 years (see graph below)

Vancouver East: $1,436,564 | +4.5% (change since November 2015)

Vancouver West: $3,827,771 | +8.0% (change since November 2015)

We can see a clear selling price drop since the record high selling prices in Spring and Summer of 2016. Part of the reason is the newly introduced “foreign investor tax” and part of the reason is a natural decline of the market (as we will see in the later graphs).

 

Next, let’s take a look at the Average Percent of Original Asking Price sellers got for their detached houses in November 2016 and for the past 3 years (see graph below)

Vancouver East: 94.1% | -9.5% (change since November 2015)

Vancouver West: 92.7% | -7.2% (change since November 2015)

We see a decline in the average precent of original price since November 2015. If we compare November 2016 to Spring and Summer 2016 there is a huge difference in the average percentage of original asking price. In April 2016 home sellers were getting 5-8% over their original asking price.

 

Now, let’s take a look at Average Number of Days It Takes to Sell a House in Vancouver in November 2016 and for the past 3 years (see graph below)

Vancouver East: 36 | +28.6% (change since November 2015)

Vancouver West: 48 | +2.1% (change since November 2015)

We can see that the average number of days a homes sits on the market went up since November 2015. However, that average is still very reasonable and well within the 10 year average. Right homes are selling relatively quickly.

 

Next, let’s take a look at the Total Number of Houses for Sale in Vancouver in November 2016 and for the past 3 years (see graph below)

Vancouver East: 701 | +100.3% (change since November 2015)

Vancouver West: 548 | +3.6% (change since November 2015)

East Vancouver has huge increase of total inventory on the market as compared to November 2015. In fact East Vancouver has unusually high number of available houses for sale compared to any month of any season including busy seasons in the Vancouver real estate market.

If the demented doesn’t meet the available inventory, which it doesn’t as we will see in graphs below than we can expect the prices to dip as they have, which we see in the graph above.

Next, let’s take a look at the Total Number of New Listings of Houses for Sale in Vancouver in November 2016 and the last 3 years (see graph below)

Vancouver East: 198 | +35.6% (change since November 2015)

Vancouver West: 111 | -29.3% (change since November 2015)

Again, not the best news for the sellers in East Vancouver as the number of new listings has increased substantially as compared to November 2015. It is very likely that without enough buyers for all of the new listings on the market in East Vancouver, prices will be coming down even more.

 

Now, lets take a look at the Total Number of Houses Sold in Vancouver in November 2016 and for the last 3 years (see graph below)

Vancouver East: 77 | -43.4% (change since November 2015)

Vancouver West: 65 | -55.8% (change since November 2015)

The number of sales for both Vancouver East and Vancouver West is about half of what they were in November last year.

What’s interesting is that Vancouver housing sales numbers were dropping 2 months before “foreign buyers tax”. The tax added breaks to already slowing down market.

 

Lastly, lets take a look at the Sales to Active Listings Ratio in November 2016 and for the last 3 years (see graph below)

Vancouver East: 0.110 | -71.7% (change since November 2015)

Vancouver West: 0.119 | -57.2% (change since November 2015)

Both Vancouver East and Vancouver West real estate housing markets are “buyers” markets. We see a shift from the first half of 2016 when the housing market was a strong “sellers” market. The transition into “buyers” market happened around July/August of 2016.

With the increase of inventory, a flood of new listings and low sales figures things are looking a bit grim for the near future of Vancouver housing market.

I hope you found this article helpful. If so, please, share it with someone who’s looking for a house in Vancouver or someone who owns a Vancouver home and would appreciate the extra information.

* All graphs and statistics are taken from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. 

First time buyers’ breakdown of downtown Vancouver condo market – December 2016

Oleg First time buyers, For Buyers, For Sellers, Statistics 1 Comment

downtown vancouver condo buildings

Here is a detailed breakdown of Downtown Vancouver condo market. Although, it’s not exclusive to the first time buyers, in my opinion first time condo buyers would gain the most from this breakdown, as they are the ones who most often purchase 1 bedroom units.

The information below strictly applies to 1 bedroom and studio condos  (no townhouses). I will analyze four of the Downtown Vancouver neighbourhoods: Coal Harbour, Downtown VW, Yaletown and West End. We will only look at resale units only; brand new units bought directly from the developer are excluded.

All of the statistics and graphs are from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. I have filtered out brand new development units, townhouses, and 2+ bedroom units. This way you will get bare-bones most accurate representation of the 1 bedroom (and studio) condo market in downtown Vancouver for November 2016 and for the past 3 years.

Find Downtown condos for sale here.

Fist, let’s look at the Average Sale Price of 1 Bedroom Condos in Downtown Vancouver (see graph below)

Coal Harbour: $604,250 | +8.8% (change since November 2015)

Downtown VW: $545,544 | +17.7% (change since November 2015)

Yaletown: $681,091 | +27.6% (change since November 2015)

West End: 487,740 | +17.1% (change since November 2015)

As you can see the prices have really gone up in neighbourhoods like Downtown VW and Yaletown in the last year. There is a huge difference in prices in all four neighbourhoods over the last three years.

West End and Coal Harbour neighbourhoods seem to be going up and down a lot more. That’s because there are fewer units selling in these neighbourhoods and the units that are selling are very diverse. You have buildings that are 40 years old and you have buildings that are 2 years old. So prices (on paper) jump up and down quite a bit. At the end of the days prices are gradually climbing up.

 

Next, let’s talk about the Percentage of the Listing Price Sellers are Getting for Their Condos (see graph below)

Coal Harbour: 96.8% | -6.1% (change since November 2015)

Downtown VW: 99.8% | -0.5% (change since November 2015)

Yaletown: 97.6% | -2.6% (change since November 2015)

West End: 101.0% | +3.4% (change since November 2015)

Units in the Downtown Vancouver are usually selling very close to the asking price. There is no surprise here. West End condos on average are still selling for over the asking price.

If you look at Spring and Summer 2016 you can really see how “hot” the market really was and how most condos were selling 5-8% over the asking price.

 

Here is a look at How Quickly the Condos are Selling (see graph below)

Coal Harbour: 33 | +120.0% (change since November 2015)

Downtown VW: 17 | -26.1% (change since November 2015)

Yaletown: 27 | +80.0% (change since November 2015)

West End: 16 | -33.3% (change since November 2015)

1 bedroom condos in Downtown Vancouver have always been selling relatively quickly. We can see some slow-down in Yaletown and Coal Harbour neighbourhoods as compared to November 2015. However, this time last year the market was quite “hot” in these neighbourhoods. “Business as usual” in the all four neighbourhoods.

 

Price per Square Foot is next (see graph below) 

Coal Harbour: $960 | +12.3% (change since November 2015)

Downtown VW: $907 | +24.1% (change since November 2015)

Yaletown: $986 | +31.5% (change since November 2015)

West End: $829 | +25.8% (change since November 2015)

All four neighbourhoods are up quite a bit from the previous year. Yaletown and Coal Harbour being the most expensive neighbourhoods in terms of price per square foot. Once again, we can see steady increase in price over the last 3 years.

 

Let’s take a look at a Total Number of 1 Bedroom Condos Available for Sale in Downtown Vancouver in November 2016 and for the past 3 years (see graph below) 

Coal Harbour: 19 | 0.0% (change since November 2015)

Downtown VW: 86 | +65.4% (change since November 2015)

Yaletown: 35 | +40.0% (change since November 2015)

West End: 45 | +2.3% (change since November 2015)

Not much change in Coal Harbour and West End neighbourhoods as compared to November 2016. However, there are substantially more condos on the market in Downtown VW and Yaletown.

 

Here are the Numbers of New Listings in November 2016 and for the past 3 years (see graph below)

Coal Harbour: 6 | -40.0% (change since November 2015)

Downtown VW: 51 | +30.8% (change since November 2015)

Yaletown: 29 | +38.1% (change since November 2015)

West End: 29 | 0.0% (change since November 2015)

We see an increase in the number of new listings in Downtown VW and Yaletown, which could potentially lead to prices flatlining if the demand is not met.

 

Here is a look at the Total Number of 1 Bedroom Condos Sold in Downtown Vancouver in November 2016 and the past 3 years (see graph below)

Coal Harbour: 4 | -33.3% (change since November 2015)

Downtown VW: 42 | -39.1% (change since November 2015)

Yaletown: 22 | -8.3% (change since November 2015)

West End: 20 | -35.5% (change since November 2015)

Sales are down across the board in all four of the Downtown neighbourhoods as compared to November 2015.

It is also clear the the sales are down as compared to the Spring 2016 and Summer 2016. However, looking back over the past 3 years sales usually dip in November and December.

 

Lastly, let’s take a look at the Sales vs Active Listings Ratio (see graph below)

Coal Harbour: 0.211 | -33.2% (change since November 2015)

Downtown VW: 0.488 | -63.2% (change since November 2015)

Yaletown: 0.629 | -34.5% (change since November 2015)

West End: 0.444 | -37.0% (change since November 2015)

Even though all four neighbourhoods are experimenting a slow-down as compared to November 2015. Downtown VW, Yaletown and West End are still “seller” markets with Coal Harbour being a “balanced” market.

I’d like to point out crazy “hot” seller market that we experienced Spring and Summer of 2016. In March 2016 Yaletown had 2.10 sales to active listings ratio. Which means 21 out of 10 condos were selling. In other words inventory from previous months as well as new inventory was selling like hot pancakes.

I hope you found this article helpful. If so, please, share it with someone who’s looking for a downtown condo or someone who owns a downtown condo and would appreciate the extra info.

What effect will “empty home tax” have on Vancouver real estate market?

Oleg Articles, For Buyers, For Sellers, News, Opinion 0 Comment

Vancouver to implement vacancy tax on empty homes and condos

BC government has cleared the way for Vancouver to impose a vacancy tax on empty homes. Vancouver plans to impose the tax by early 2017. It will make it the first major city in Canada to implement such a penalty amid skyrocketing rents and growing concerns about foreign investment and speculation.

Mayor Robertson noted that a city study concluded there were about 10,800 empty residential units homes in the province, almost all condos, as of 2014.

Similar tax was introduced in London on ‘ghost homes’ back in 2013. As a result, one third of absentee owners began renting out their flats. However the majority of absentee owners left their flats vacant. The annual appreciation is way more than the ’empty home tax’.

So what effect will this new tax have on Vancouver’s real estate market?

In my opinion there will be no significant effect. Overseas millionaires and billionaires would not care about a couple of thousands of dollars per year in taxes. Vancouver has one of the lowest property taxes in the world. Even after additional vacancy tax it would still be quite affordable.

Empty home tax would be very hard to enforce. You could always have one of your family members “live” in the unit for a couple of weeks every year.

Other municipalities have not agreed to such tax yet. If Vancouver has an “empty home tax” a potential investor can alway buy in Burnaby, or North Vancouver, or Richmond, or… you get the idea.

In the best case scenario a small portion of the absentee owners will decide to rent out their units. Which should stimulate the rental vacancy rate. Currently the rental vacancy rate in Vancouver is 0.6 percent. Housing experts say a healthy vacancy rate is 3 per cent to 5 per cent.

In summery empty home tax will not have any significant effect on the real estate market in Vancouver. It might have a slight effect on the rental vacancy rates, but even that is questionable.

 

NOTE: This article represents my personal opinion. Do your own independent research before taking any actions. 

Summer 2016 – Vancouver Real Estate Predictions

Oleg Articles, For Buyers, For Sellers, Opinion 0 Comment

What to expect from the Vancouver real estate market for the summer 2016 season.

Vancouver Coal Harbour Marina

 

 

Friends, we are entering uncharted waters. The demand is at the all time high. The inventory is the at the all time low. We are having one record-breaking month after another. What’s next? Will the market crash? Will the prices go down? Will the market remain just as strong?

Short answer – “I don’t know”. In fact nobody knows, and whoever claims that they know is probably a psychic. However, as an experienced Vancouver Realtor I can make some predictions.

Real Estate Prices

We can anticipate the prices to go up slightly over the next few months in most of the Vancouver neighbourhoods. The price increase will not be as extreme as what we’ve seen in the winter and spring of 2016.

Condo prices in some Vancouver neighbourhoods might even plateau. In my opinion we will not see any price drops during summer 2016.

Buyers’ Demand

Buyers’ demand in Vancouver remains strong. However, we can already see early signs of the buyers fatigue. Properties that were receiving 8-10 offers in March and April are now getting 3-4 offers. Still a lot of demand. Perhaps people looking for properties during summer months notice a drop in the competition levels.

The market is still a very strong sellers market and will most likely remain a strong sellers markets for the summer months.

Inventory Levels/Houses or Condos for Sale

Vancouver real estate market tends to go through the seasons. Spring is generally a busy season and summer is slower.

We have seen a fifty percent drop in inventory from the previous years.  We can anticipate even lower levels of inventory during this summer season. This could be a good opportunity for potential sellers to list their home as there are less competing properties.

In summery, the Vancouver real estate market will slow down a little for the summer months.  The lower buyer demand will be balanced out by the lower inventory levels. For the most part – business as usual.

 

NOTE: This article represents my personal opinion. Do your own independent research before taking any actions. 

Spring 2016 – Vancouver Real Estate Market Update

Oleg Articles, For Buyers, For Sellers, News, Opinion 0 Comment

What you should know about the Vancouver real estate market in the spring 2016.

vancouver skyline

Vancouver real estate market is a topic of conversation. It’s hard to turn on the news without hearing about a tear-down that’s been sold for three hundred thousand dollars over asking price or how the last few months were record breaking for local real estate.

Here are the trends I’ve noticed over the last couple of months:

The buyers demand seems to be cooling off as we head into the summer season.

Properties that used to receive 8-10 offers now receive 3-4 offers. Real Estate market activity usually goes though seasonal cycles. There are high activity seasons such as spring and fall, and lower activity seasons such as summer and winter.

A cool-off in real estate activity is natural as we enter summer season. But this could also be an early sign of over-all cool down of the hyper-active Vancouver real estate market. It is still too early to tell which one is it.

The prices are still remaining high and show no signs of going down.

Even though the buyers demand is cooling-off the real estate market still remains a very strong sellers’ market.

Real estate prices continue climbing up but perhaps not as fast as they did at the end of winter/early spring 2016. As we head into the summer season, we can anticipate real estate prices to slow down.  More on this in my article –  “Summer 2016 – Vancouver Real Estate Predictions”.

Inventory is still at the all time low.

We have seen a fifty percent drop in inventory from the previous years. This lack of available properties for sale is one of the most important components fuelling such strong seller market.

We can expect even less inventory being available for the upcoming summer season, which will balance out the lower buyer demand and continue current real estate climate.

In summery, Vancouver real estate market remains a very strong sellers market with roughly 3-4 buyers for every property for sale. Until we solve the demand issue in Vancouver or there is a major change effecting real estate market (ex. increase in the interests rates) we will continue seeing a version of the current market climate for the foreseeable future.

 

NOTE: This article represents my personal opinion. Do your own independent research before taking any actions. 

Vancouver’s proposed affordable ownership program

Oleg Articles, For Buyers, News, Opinion 0 Comment
Vancouver skyline / new affordability program
JENNIFER GAUTHIER/METRO

Earlier this week City of Vancouver announced that it plans to create new affordability program for local residents. The purpose of the program is to address unaffordability issues in Vancouver BC. Specifically, Vancouver’s residents not being able to afford to purchase their first home due to rapid increase in the real estate prices.

If you feel skeptical about such program, you’re not alone. However, there are similar programs already in place in Calgary, Toronto and United Kingdom.

Don’t get too excited about the program just yet. To implement this program the city needs to secure permission from the province to change the Vancouver Charter. The Charter doesn’t necessarily prevent city from having a shared homeownership program. But the council is sticking with the motto – “better safe than sorry”.

How would the program work?

Details aren’t finalized, but the program would involve the city purchasing about 20 per cent of a units in a new development so the buyer – who would be subject to numerous restrictions – wouldn’t have as high of a down payment or mortgage payments. If the value of the property goes up upon sale of one of the unit in the “affordability program” City of Vancouver would receive it’s share of profits. If there are any remaining profits, these would be shared with the homeowner. It’s a win-win situation.

Who would qualify for the program?

  • Must be a resident of the city for a minimum of five years
  • Must be a permanent resident or citizen
  • Must never have owned property before (first time buyer)
  • Must be employed in Vancouver
  • Earn less than $67,540 per year for one-bedroom units (as a household)
  • Earn less than $96,170 per year for two and three bedroom units for people with children (as a household)
  • Must complete a home buyer education course

How many units will be available in the program?

The city aims to create 300 affordable units within the next 3 years. At least half the the available units will have two to three bedrooms. City officials said they might create a lottery system to see who gets to buy in. There are estimated 30,000 qualified households in Vancouver at the moment.

In my opinion it is fantastic the City of Vancouver is creating such programs. It is no secret that there are a lot of people that can’t afford to purchase their first condo in the city. With such programs we boost economy and help first time buyers. That’s why I love Canada, more specifically Vancouver! Where else will you find government care so much about people’s well being (outside of Toronto, Calgary and United Kingdom lol)?

Vancouver developer offers to sell condos with 0% downpayment

Oleg Articles, For Buyers, News 0 Comment
Image from: http://www.townline.ca/
Image from: http://www.townline.ca/

A local developer Townline Homes has made some headlines in the last couple of weeks. This Vancouver development company wants to sell condos in their new development – The Strand, in Port Moody with a 0% downpayment.  This proposal has been already accepted by BC Housing. However, Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has not approved the proposal yet.

How does the program work? 

The price of the condos will be discounted for a minimum of 8% (as recognized by CMHC). This discount will act as a downpayment. The buyer then mortgages the entire remaining amount. This program will require no vendor take back mortgage or a second mortgage. You will have to own the property for a minimum of 2 years before selling to keep 100% of the profits (including the developer discount).

Who can qualify for the program? 

This program was designed for lower income families who can not afford the cash downpayment required for most purchases. In order to qualify for the program you must be making under $65,000 (as a household) for a one bedroom condo, and under $92,000 (as a household) for a one bedroom plus a den condo.  This regulation is put in place to prevent wealthy investors taking advantage of the program.

ST-I
1 bedroom + den + workstation floor plan

Why was this program proposed? 

The program is proposed to help lower income families get into the real estate market. It is a noble cause. Although, the developer might have another reason – PR! It makes them look good and brings a lot of attention to the development. It is worth mentioning that only a small percentage of units in the development are dedicated to the affordability program. The rest of the development is sold as usual.

It’s a win-win situation for the development company. If CMHC approves their proposal, it makes them look awesome. Selling these affordable units will be very easy. If CMHC does not approve their proposal, the developer still comes up on top. Hey, at least they tried to do something.

But lets dismiss this program as a PR stunt; it is a great initiative. It will help some young people get into the real estate market. It is a true win-win situation. The buyers get to buy a brand new condo with 0% downpayment and the developer gets some pretty good exposure.

In my opinion we will see more affordability programs like this one in the upcoming years.

Should you hire an inspector for a walk-through of your new property?

Oleg Articles, For Buyers, Opinion, Tips 0 Comment

Inspection-Passed

As real estate professional I get asked a lot of questions. “Should I get an inspection done, when I buy a property?” is among the most frequently asked questions. Here is a simple answer – YES! YOU SHOULD GET AN INPECTION DONE WHEN BUYING  REAL ESTATE! But what about brand new properties? Should you still get an inspection for brand new properties? If so, when should you do it?

The answer is YES! Even for the brand new house or a condo you should still hire an inspector. I am not some crazy “inspector employment advocate”. Experienced inspectors will be able to find hidden issues that might need attention, even in the brand new properties. If they don’t find anything, at least you will sleep better at night. That’s a scientific fact.

The question of “IF you should get an inspection?”, becomes “WHEN should you get an inspection?”.  Brand new properties can be either move-in ready, under construction or in the development stages. 

If the house or a condo is under construction or in the development stages the only time you will be able to hire an inspector is for the final deficiency report (also referred to as “walk-through”).

The deficiency report or the final walk-through is 1-3 hours inspection booked off for you and the developer to walk through the property and look for deficiencies. This date is usually set about a month prior to the completion date. All of the deficiencies found should be fixed before the completion date at the expense of the builder/developer. Ask your real estate agent about appropriate subjects to include in your contract. Feel free to contact me as well.

The walk-through is a great time to hire an inspector. He or she will be able to point out hidden deficiencies and save you time and money in the long run. As a curtesy let the developer (or selling agent) know that you will be hiring an inspector for a final walk through.

If the new property is move-in ready, I suggest adding an inspection clause into your offer, if possible. This way you will have 5-10 days to schedule the inspection and make sure that there are no hidden problems with the property before committing to the purchase. Ask your real estate agent about “the inspection subject”.

If the inspection is not possible before subjects’ removal (or you don’t inspection subject in your offer), you can still hire an inspector for the final walk-through. The same rules apply as before.

When buying real estate, it is always better to be safe than sorry. Always hire a professional inspector even when buying brand new construction.

Will the new mortgage regulations effect Vancouver real estate market? [OPINION]

Oleg Articles, For Buyers, For Sellers, News, Opinion 1 Comment

 

Quick recap: New Canadian mortgage regulations will now require a minimum down payment of 10% for properties priced over $500,000 (but under $1,000,000).  The new regulations apply to all Canadian mortgages insured by the government. See full article here: link to the article.

The new down payment rules have gotten a lot of people talking. Many experts believe that these changes will have a significant effect on the real estate markets all around Canada.

I am here to offer my opinion on the subject. Keep in mind, it’s my personal opinion based on my experience and should be viewed as such.  I am an expert Metro Vancouver REALTOR®, and can only comment on the local market.

I don’t think that new mortgage regulations will have any significant effect on the Greater Vancouver real estate market.

It is true that a lot of Vancouver properties are priced over $500,000. It is also true that more properties will be reaching that price mark in the near future. In my estimate 90% of all one bedroom condos in downtown Vancouver will cost over $500,000 within the next 5 years.

So why do I say that this rules change will have no significant effect on the local real estate market? In my experience most people buying properties over $500,000 have at least 20-25% down payments. Let me explain…

  • Usually, the buyers of five hundred thousand dollar properties are upsizing from smaller cheaper condos or townhouses. They have gained some equity in their starter home and are ready to move into something larger and more expensive. More often than not, “upsizers” have enough equity in their home for at least 15-20% down payment for the new house.
  • Most first time home buyers will not qualify for a $475,000 mortgage with a 5% down payment. The first time buyers who buy condos or houses over $500,000 have their families help with a portion or the entire amount of a down payment. Most of the time these down payments are well over 10% mark (closer to 20-25%).
  • International buyers and new-comers to Canada will rarely qualify for a mortgage in Canada. And if they do, it’s usually for a special “new-comers to Canada” program. Most of these programs require a minimum of 35% down payment.
  • Of course there are exceptions. Some people will be effected by the change. Young professionals trying to buy their first house or a condo. Families who want to get their starter home. And migrants from other Canadian provinces starting their lives in Vancouver.

From my experience the percentage of the Vancouver buyers that will be effected by this change is very small. This small percentage will not have a substantial impact on the overall Vancouver real estate market.

In my opinion, there will be no real estate crash and no major changes to the market activity in Vancouver. Business as usual! The best advice I can give to someone who is looking to buy their first home or a condo – start saving your money for a down payment today and buy it as soon as you can. The prices are not likely to go down.

 

DISCLAIMER: I am not a licensed mortgage broker. This article expresses my personal opinion only! Do your own independent research before making any real estate decisions.